Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am looking at DSTs that you really can set and forget. Next week we are finally getting into the Value series where I go deeper into each round and what player you should be targeting in each one. But for now, let’s finish out this pre-season Rankings series with one final article.
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One Game Floor: I take the performances of all the DSTs from the last two years, I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a DSTs production or for the increase in their production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the DST has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the DST's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game floor" or just "Floor". Example: Cleveland Browns has a 2.1 one game floor, that means that there is only a 16% risk that they will score less than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
The New England Patriots are the DST with the most one game upside as we saw last week but when it comes to stability they are not what I would call good value. A floor of 2 is not that far of the leader in this regard but considering how much you have to pay for the Patriots there is just no way that I would target them for any of my fantasy teams in 2020.
Both the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that I praised last week end up making the top 10 in highest floor as well which is very good. They don’t cost that much and there is a great mix of upside and safety with drafting or starting any of these DSTs. The Rams are the better value between these two as they are going undrafted in most 12 team PPR leagues at the moment while the Buccaneers demand a 13th round pick, not something that scares me to much if I am being honest but still.
The Seattle Seahawks did not make the top 12 in the ceiling rankings but rank as high as 6 here today and with the addition of Jamal Adams you gotta be interested in getting them on your fantasy team for a few weeks. He adds plenty of sacks, at least one interception but helps other players as well. So even with the Seahawks defense being somewhat trash last year I will be looking to snag them as a potential weekly starter, especially as I can draft Wide Receivers or Running Backs all up until Week 1 without having to spend a draft pick on a DST.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been climbing up the ADP ladder slowly but surely over the last month or so and it makes me so sad. I was ready to pick them up and roll with them in pretty much every team. Now, this is looking more and more difficult as they command a pretty high draft pick in the 11th round. When they were going in the 13th round they were my go to DST in all mock drafts as they have the highest floor and the second highest ceiling, you just don’t find that every year.
I will still try to get them on my rosters as the numbers show that they both will be very stable and have great upside so you can set and forget while also having a DST that will help you win a week or two throughout the season.
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Till next time! // CSD