Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are in the final stretch of ranking articles, this is the second to last one and we are on the final position group, DST. Not everyone plays with DSTs but as I said with Kickers, if your league does start a DST you will have a massive advantage over most casual fantasy players if you just spend a bit of time researching. To help with that, I got the Floor Rankings here for you today.
Before I get into today's topic I would like to announce that I have due to requests from a few readers and followers on YouTube started a Patreon Page.
One Game Floor For DSTs:
I have taken the performances of all the DSTs from the last two years. (NEW) I have also added a weight to have the latest season be worth more than previous season to account for a change in defenses, for instance getting Khalil Mack in a trade. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the DST has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% risk of not being reached each week, that is, the DST's scoring variation. The scoring is not very likely to land under this number and this is why I call this the "one game Floor" or just "Floor". Let's dig in!
Usually when it comes to my top pick at a position I like to have a high Floor and take shots later on in the draft on high Ceiling players or players with unknown factors such as rookies. However, for DSTs I like to get a team with high Ceiling and 1 point on a bad week, but can help me win one to two games over the season.
The reason behind this is that the it is too difficult to predict the defensive stats compared to touchdowns and yards. With that said, the Floor is not as valuable to me but if you prefer a DST that won’t lose you a game and will provide you with a safe 2-3 points every week these are the teams you should be looking at.
So, even if the Texans are the 12th team on this list, they rank 7th on the Ceiling rankings and is why I still like them enough to have them as a team to focus on. The same can not be said for the other three teams, they will get you 2 points on a bad week but don’t even crack the top 12 on the Ceiling Rankings, so I would try to stay away from them.
In the second group of the day the three DSTs I want to focus on are the Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs and the Cleveland Browns. They don’t reach the Floor of the Chicago Bears or Washington Redskins with over 3 points but they still have over 2, with Ceilings I will talk more about next week.
The Team that really peaks my interest is the Seahawks, you don’t have to spend a dime on them right now. Their overall ADP is right now 238 meaning that if you play in a normal 10-12 team league you won’t have to draft them until the last pick of the draft, and still feel comfortable that you’ll get them, that is great value. Compare that to 131st pick for the Minnesota Vikings, who are nowhere to be found on this list, and spoilers not on next week’s either.
The Redskins, Colts and Patriots are all teams that represent what I was talking about earlier, they will never win you a game but they will be very safe in getting you 2.5-3.3 points each week. I love that with Quarterbacks but for DST 3 points is almost meaningless over the course of a season and in a single game as well. I wouldn’t draft any of them under any circumstances, there are so much more value to be had at the position that going for a high Floor is pointless (pun intended). I much rather go with the three teams that I talked about in the last group, they all have low or even lower ADP than these three but will win you a lot more games in 2019.
Chicago are my absolute highest ranked DST going into 2019, they might not have the best value as you will have to spend a higher pick to get them, in some leagues this might be worth considering but in most I would not recommend spending the 88th overall pick on a DST. They have an incredibly talented defense with a great return game. This will lead to a lot of points, but I still would use that pick on a WR/RB. If they were to fall to say the 11th-12th round, that might be the best route to go, it is all about relative value, it is the same for every position even if the rounds are different.
So, you want to win at fantasy football? The key is to know more than your friends and family and this is the right place for it. For an even larger knowledge gap head over to the Fantasy Snapshot Bundle. You'll get video breakdowns of more than 100 players to help you conquer the draft season with ease. Get You Access Code Today -> 2019 Fantasy Snapshot Bundle
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD