Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am writing a little shorter article as I am preparing for some big pieces coming out in weeks. In addition to this, don’t forget to check out the YouTube channel where I am posting a new Video everyday leading up to draft season. In this article I will focus on the DSTs that provide you the most single game upside on any given week, they are perhaps not the best teams to set and forget but will give you an edge in DFS on a good week.
If you are new to the Ceiling Rankings read on below before you dig into the actual rankings so you know what the numbers stand for.
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One Game Ceiling: I take the performances of all the DSTs from the last two years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. I also add a weight to the latest season so it is worth more than previous seasons to account for a decline in a players production or for the increase in his production. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: New Orleans Saints has a 11.5 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Both the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints are being drafted in the 14th round right now and that is a little rich considering that you can get a DST with more single game upside in the New York Jets without even spending a draft pick on them. The Buffalo Bills in Week 1 is not a great match-up for the Jets so I don’t recommend going in with the plan of playing them Week 1, but you can definitely pick them up after that game and run for a few games.
The Baltimore Ravens are way over drafted right now going as high as the 10th round. No way you should be spending such a high draft pick on a team that just barely cracks the top 10 in ceilings. I was going to say, I much rather have the Chicago Bears defense but they are over drafted as well in the 12th round. Furthermore, it is not like these two DSTs come with a high floor week in and week out, no they won’t be near next week’s floor rankings. If you are playing DFS only, yes you can start them for some big games here and there, but I would never spend a pick on them in a redraft situation.
San Francisco does have more upside than the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay but, 9th round for a DST is insane and you need to seek help if you go with them there. No that might be a little harsh but the DST position is one of the most volatile positions in fantasy year to year and assuming that they'll be as good as last year is very dangerous and one of the reasons that I use a smaller sample size for DSTs than every other position.
The Los Angeles Rams are my go to defense for high end production early in the year. They finished the year as the 6th best DST by total fantasy points last year and still has a good defense. The reason they are my go to is not just because of this but also because they are dirt cheap right now. They are for some reason not being drafted in 12 team leagues and with a spoiler for next week, they will rank pretty high in the floor rankings as well, so they are pretty stable week in and week out as well. Get the Rams as your high end scoring DST without even spending a pick on DST and enjoy winning some fantasy games thanks to a position most people ignore.
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Till next time! // CSD