Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, this is the last position ranking article for the year! Next week I will be getting into the value articles for each position, meaning who has the best Floor and Ceiling per round, so you with even more precision can decide who to target.
Today, I am looking at the DSTs with the highest Ceilings. Unlike the Quarterback position I love a DST with a high Ceiling and I don't care as much about the Floor. This is because the difference between the Quarterback Ceilings aren't as big and the Floors are so low for DSTs that you are OK with 1.2 points compared to 1.1. So, if you are reading one of my DST article, this should be the one.
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Before I get into today's topic I would like to announce that I have due to requests from a few readers and followers on YouTube started a Patreon Page.
One Game Ceiling For DSTs:
I have taken the performances of all the DSTs from the last two years. (NEW) I have also added a weight to have the latest season be worth more than previous season to account for a change in defenses, for instance getting Khalil Mack in a trade. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the DST has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Let's dig in!
I talked plenty about the Seattle Seahawks last week. They have pretty interesting combo of a high Floor with a decently high Ceiling and cost nothing to draft. Compare that to the Los Angeles Chargers a team that has a really good defense, don't get me wrong, but the draft capital for what you are getting is not worth it.
To get the Chargers you will have to spend a top 150 pick. In a twelve team league that pick might be a lot more valuable to spend on a 4th Receiver or a Running Back that potentially can take over a starting role on his team. Seeing as the Chargers and Seahawks provide roughly the same amount of points on a good week and the Seahawks give about 1 more points on their bad weeks, you can see why I don\t want to overpay for the Chargers.
The Jaguars are a superior Fantasy Pick compared to the rest of this pack in both Floor and Ceiling and their ADP reflects that unfortunately. They are right now the third most expensive DST to draft and I can understand why. The defense is known as being good and they have players that produce both sacks and interceptions.
However, I would like to focus on the Houston Texans. They are about a point behind the Jaguars but you can get them 20 picks later. So if you are planning to draft a DST in rounds 10-13 go with the Jaguars, they are the better pick, but if you happen to miss them don't worry. You can get the Texans and be very happy with yourself. There is only one DST I would rather have for the price you have to pay right now but I will get to them in a minute.
The Texans have so much star power on that defense and if all of them can stay on the field there is no reason why they can't be a top performing fantasy DST. You might ask me, CSD, why are you not talking about the Broncos and Bengals, they have the same or better Ceiling? That is a very good question sir! The reason is that I want a high Ceiling but when comparing two teams with similar numbers I take a look at the Floor as well to tip the scale, and the Bengals and Broncos 2nd and 5th lowest Floor of any DST. So, compared to the Texans, they are a worse overall fantasy option even if they can match their Ceiling.
As I said last week, the Chicago Bears are my absolute highest ranked DST going into 2019 but as I keep saying, you will have to pay for them. I want you to be so informed that you don't have to draft the most obvious top pick and still come out on top.
The pick that is going to take you all the way in 2019 is the Kansas City Chiefs. They have the 4th highest Ceiling, 6th highest Floor and an overall ADP of 205! You don't have to pay a thing compared to these other DSTs and you will get almost the exact same production. This is the best pick you can make for your fantasy team and it is not even close. Sure, the Bears will most likely have more points by the end of the year, but by spending the 90th pick overall on a DST they missed out on Dante Pettis who will be fantastic in 2019! Draft the Chiefs and Pettis and win your league instead of overpaying for the flashy Bears.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD