Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, the Correlation series continues today with a look at Tight Ends. This year's version of this series has been highly educational on my end. I never thought I would see these kinds of numbers that have shown up where we can clearly see what trends correlates with fantasy points. I was hoping to see some things show up but there has been so many revelations that it has heavily impacted how I analyze and look at players for the 2019 season.
I have measured everything today with a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient test, which measures if two samples move in the same direction.
A positive correlation, when the correlation coefficient (r) is above 0, it signifies that both variables move in the same direction. When (r) is +1, it signifies that the two variables have a perfect positive relationship and when one of them move, up or down, the other variable moves in the same direction with the same speed, if one variable move up 2, the other one move up 2 as well.
As an example, the price of gas is directly related to the price of a bus ticket. With a correlation coefficient (r) of +0.8. The relationship between gas price and bus tickets have a very strong positive correlation since the value is close to +1. So if the price of gas decreases, bus tickets will follow. If the price of gas increases, so does the prices of the bus ticket. Let's dig in!
The Tight End position is the first position this year that has not shown any incredible results when it comes to targeting. The Short Left as with Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks have a stronger correlation with fantasy points than the Short Right but not by a lot. The Short Middle is struggling a lot and is a zone that actually has negative correlation.
The worst zone a Tight End can have a ton of his targets too is the Deep Left. The Correlation Coefficient (r) is -0.33 for this zone, meaning that the higher percentage of your targets going there the more likely you are to be a low scoring Tight End.
When it comes to catch rate there are only two zones that have any sort of correlation with fantasy points, Short Middle and Deep Right. All other zones have (r) less than 0.1. The Short Middle is again a zone that has a negative Correlation Coefficient (r) with fantasy scoring, -0.22. So not only those more targets here mean less fantasy points, but the better you are at catching those targets the more likely you are to be a low scoring Tight End, this is something to keep in mind since a lot of Tight Ends see a lot of targets in this zone.
The Deep Right actually has a pretty decent correlation with a (r) of 0.28. But that is it, there are no other patterns showing that catch rate impacts Tight Ends fantasy scoring and this is the first position group that I have not been able to find anything with these two metrics.
However, yards per catch is end all be all for Tight Ends. This is the only thing you need to focus on for the position group. All zones have positive correlation with fantasy scoring even if some zones have stronger.
What this means is that it does not matter if your Tight End drops a ton of passes or if he is targeted in the wrong zones, if he's good at gaining yards in those zones he's going to be a good Tight End for fantasy.
Take Eric Ebron as an example. He sees most of his targets Short Right followed by Short Middle and his most targeted deep zone is the Deep Right. These three zones are the worst you can have. He also has way below league average catch rates in all but the Deep Left and Short Left where he's just above and right on average. However, he gains a ton of yards whenever he catches the ball in the deep zones and that leads to Touchdowns and fantasy points for Tight Ends.
In conclusion, the yards per catch is where it is. If you have a guy that sees 50% of his targets Short Right I don't mind as long as he gains 14 yards per catch there and catches every third pass.
All the Tight End's receiving trends will be in the Fantasy Snapshot Bundle that will release in May so you don't have to wonder how to get these stats in time for your drafts!
On Thursday I will look into George Kittle and learn more about his receiving trends and fantasy scoring for 2018.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD