Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, after gushing over Patrick Mahomes and being a bit torn on James Conner I now have Baker Mayfield in front of me and I gotta say, this is the Quarterback that I am most excited about for 2019. Sure Mahomes just did something really special, but you will have to pay a king's ransom to draft him, I believe that Mayfield will take some huge steps and become a steal in 2019.
We are inching closer to the release of the Fantasy Snapshot Bundle. Soon I will drop a trailer and the first video to get us going, I hope y'all are half as excited as I am. Let's dig in!
Baker Mayfield's passing breakdown is the main reason I am excited about him for the future. It is not all about his "alpha male" and dangerous attitude but how good his numbers look.
Starting with the passing patterns, at first glance he looks like any Quarterback. More throws to the right side of the field than the left. But then you take a second look at the percentages in the deep zones. He throws 8% more to the deep zones than the average NFL Quarterback. That is huge, especially for a young guy. He throws 8% more than Jared Goff, 10% more than Deshaun Watson, 9% more than Carson Wentz. The only guy that throws more deep passes on average is Josh Allen but he is not nearly as accurate. So he has one trait that makes him stand out compared to everyone, the deep throw.
Furthermore, he is right now league average in his completion rate in the deep zones. So, he throws more deep throws than anyone and is as accurate as an average guy with average yards per completion. That means that with he will make more completions and gain more yards from his deep throws than the average Quarterback. He has reached that level in one NFL season and he had an upwards facing trend line of 5% which is pretty good.
If Mayfield can raise the amount of yards per completion he has in the shorter zones by 2 yards across the board he will be a fantasy superstar in 2019. Furthermore, in a dream scenario he would throw more passes to the left side of the field and raise the accuracy on those throws.
The usability of Mayfield is not as interesting as Mahomes and Conner. He has less usable games and was not really a viable option for fantasy in 2018. On the other hand, he only had one less usable game than Tom Brady and Dak Prescott, guys that has been great for fantasy over the last couple of years. If he would have played the entire season he most likely would have ended up with five usable games and this would have been less of an issue.
Mayfield's production in the different phases of the game is as you can see pretty average. The only thing that really sticks out it that he was more productive in the fourth Quarter than the rest of the league, that is not necessarily a good thing. It can either show that he steps up his game when the game is on the line or that the opposing team already has a lead and he is forced to pass a ton in garbage time. For Mayfield it is a mix of these two things. He threw for more touchdowns and yards in games where the Browns won or loss by 7 points or won or loss by more than 15 points than he did in games that was between 7-15 points.
That means that he both scored more in garbage time and in tight games that in games that was just a regular loss, not blowouts. To me this shows a Quarterback that has a huge set of personal and athletic abilities.
Last Thing I want to look at is as usual the situational splits. He was dead even in his home-away split which is good for a long season of fantasy but less good for DFS.
He scored way more against bottom 16 defenses. That is the 16 defenses that give up the most points to Quarterbacks, not defenses in general. This is much better for DFS as we can see a big trend here. He struggled in fantasy against teams that tend to limit Quarterback scoring.
He finished off with scoring more against teams with a below 500 record. Again good for us for figuring out when he will perform his best. In DFS you would like to start him home or away vs. a bottom 16 defense with a losing record.
Next Thursday I will be looking into Phillip Lindsay and on Saturday I will be looking into how Sam Darnold and Adam Gase fits each other on the YouTube channel!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD