Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I have finally processed all the information from the top 29 Quarterbacks in the NFL from 2019. In the past I have done correlations with completion %, pass attempts and so on, really obvious easily access data. So, this year I wanted to go even deeper and be a bit more obscure. With that in mind I decided to look at what Completion % in certain zones and Passing Trends. To look at the previous correlation articles click here.
I have measured everything with a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient test, which measures if two samples move in the same direction.
A positive correlation, when the correlation coefficient (r) is above 0, it signifies that both variables move in the same direction. When (r) is +1, it signifies that the two variables have a perfect positive relationship and when one of them move, up or down, the other variable moves in the same direction with the same speed, if one variable move up 2, the other one move up 2 as well.
As an example, the price of gas is directly related to the price of a bus ticket. With a correlation coefficient (r) of +0.8. The relationship between gas price and bus tickets have a very strong positive correlation since the value is close to +1. So if the price of gas decreases, bus tickets will follow. If the price of gas increases, so does the prices of the bus ticket. Let's dig in!
If you have not followed any of my previous content I divided the field into six zones. Short Left, Middle and Right and Deep Left, Middle and Right. Short means that a pass is less than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage and deep consequently beyond 15 yards from the line of scrimmage.
With that I decided to look into if any of the zones had a stronger correlation with fantasy scoring than the other zones and what I found was extremely interesting. Quarterbacks that have a higher completion percentage in the Short Left zone score more fantasy points in general.
The correlation coefficient (r) is 0.64 in the Short Left, which is 0.06 above the second strongest correlating zone, the Deep Left. Furthermore, the two left zones are the ones with the strongest and third strongest correlation which leads me to believe that if the QB complete more passes to the left side of the field he will in general be a better fantasy Quarterback.
This is very interesting, especially since the other zones are except the Short Right all are in the 0.4's. Which means that two Quarterbacks can have the exact same completion percentage and be viewed as very accurate but one of them is more accurate in certain areas of the field in will be the better option to draft in fantasy football. This is of course only one factor I look into when drafting and will not be the answer to all your draft needs, but it will help in the decision making.
Going deeper into the Short Left zone and we see that Quarterbacks that target the Short Left zone the most are also the Quarterbacks that tend to score more fantasy points per game. There is no significant correlation between a Quarterbacks targeting and his fantasy scoring in any of the other zones, meaning that you can basically have any targeting trends and your scoring will not be impacted in a major way. But, in the Short Left the correlation coefficient (r) is 0.41 which is pretty high compared to the 0.01 in the Short Right.
Now we can start making some even stronger claims. If you have two Quarterbacks that you rate pretty evenly for fantasy with similar ADP and you are on the board. You are having a hard time deciding on who to pick and decide that their passing patterns will be the deciding factor you should draft the Quarterback that has the highest accuracy and throws more times to the Short Left. Three examples are, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan have the highest combined completion percentage and highest number of throws in the Short Left, QB 2, 3 and 5 in 2018.
All the Quarterbacks passing patterns will be in the Fantasy Snapshot Bundle that will release in May so you don't have to wonder how to get these stats in time for your drafts!
On Thursday I will look into James Conner and learn more about his rushing trends and fantasy scoring for 2018.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD