Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, glad to be back creating content again. I know I said I was going to be producing content during January and I have it is just that y'all have not seen it yet. I have been hard at work at the Fantasy Snapshot Bundle that will be released in May. It is a huge bundle with over 150 Video breakdowns on all of the best fantasy players in the NFL. I don't know the final amount of players yet as new guys keeps popping up in my head that I want to look at but y'all can be sure it will be enough. I will keep updating you on this as we move closer to release.
Today I will start the off-season series called Fantasy Breakdown. If you have not seen this series before it focuses on the new fantasy stars of the league and how they scored their points. I take a deep dive into the numbers that impact my projection algorithm to learn who might have been a one season wonder and who will continue to dominate. Starting off I'm of course looking at Patrick Mahomes. Let's dig in!
When it comes to Mahomes' passing patterns he is actually a quite average Quarterback. Nothing really sticks out with where his passes are thrown in a broader sense. Of course where he places the ball differs from other QBs but not the patterns. He does not target one zone a ton more than other QBs. For instance, he's almost right on average in all zones, especially since it is standard for a right hand QB to throw more to the right side of the field than the left.
His completion rate is the first sign of an MVP. He is far above the average Quarterback in all zones which is amazing! There is no weak zone for him, he throws it anywhere he wants and it will get to the Receiver. You can't really find a zone and say hey, here is where he's the best or worst cause they are all so evenly matched. The short zones are all within 4% of each other and the deep zones within 7%. Compare that to someone like Andrew Luck who also was extremely accurate and you can see a difference right away. Luck had 6% difference between his best and worst short zone and 21% between his best and worst deep zone.
Again, with the yards per completion, he is so even all across the field that it is blowing my mind. 3 yard difference in the deep zones and 2 in the short. Sure 2 in the short zones is not too much but when your low is 10 it is very very good. Only Mahomes and Luck had double digit yards per completion in the short zones in the entire league.
It is interesting to see that his yards per completion in the deep zones is not in the high 30's or 40's. I would have thought the numbers to be a little bit higher but still, 1-2 yards above league average in all zones shows just how stable he is in his performance.
Mahomes was of course the most usable Quarterback in the league. I don't think I need to go too much in depth into this. He had 14 weeks where he should have been started, and to clarify, the max usability a player can have is 15 due to the bye week and that I do not count Week 17.
I feel like this article is more of a tribute to Mahomes than it is an analysis of how he did in 2018. But in my defense, these numbers are mind blowing and I had not spend too much time with him this year. Sure he was my highest projected player almost every week but it became the new normal that I never really looked into it in a deeper way. Furthermore, seeing that he had 8 weeks of scoring above the average of a QB1 and 6 weeks of above average QB2 scoring is just amazing, the consistency is everything I look for in a fantasy QB so this is making dizzy!
Looking more into his performances and seeing where he differs from other Quarterbacks I looked into how he handles Downs and Quarters. With the downs, he is of course above the league average in general but the interesting thing is just how much better he is on 3rd and 4th down. That let's me know that when things get difficult and the play really really matters he will step up his game and deliver. Even comparing him to Aaron Rodgers there is a huge difference, Rodgers average around 9-11 yards per completion on any given down. Mahomes is 2 yards above Rodgers on 3rd down and 12 on 4th down.
Looking at Quarters we see that Mahomes comes out the starting block like a cannon and finishes off his opponent in the 3rd quarter before slowing down in the 4th. This is the easiest way to see if a Quarterback relies on garbage time fantasy points a la Blake Bortles. I at least like to know that the QB I am drafting will be able to score points before his team is down by 21 points. This is a trust thing, I want him to be able to handle all types of game scripts and still produce points.
Last thing I wanted to look at was his situation splits. This showcases where he scores more fantasy points, where 50% is his average. So he actually scores a bit below his average when he was playing at arrowhead. That is highly unusually as only six Quarterbacks in the league did this. Even more unusual is that Mahomes is the only one who does not play in a northern state. I have more info about this stat but will hold onto that until a later date as the finding is very odd and I would like to dig a bit deeper.
He scored more when playing against a Bottom 16 defense, not a big surprise. A plus here is that the disparity is not too big. For instance, Trubisky and Winston scores over 15% above their average when they play a bad defense, that means that also mean they struggle mighty against good ones while Mahomes keeps on trucking.
The same can be said when looking how he does against teams with winning or losing records. Matt Ryan 14% more when he plays a team with a below 500 record while Mahomes almost makes no difference if he's playing a good team or a bad one. Important to keep this in mind as he will play nine games against teams that had winning records in 2018.
Next Thursday I will be looking into James Conner and on next Saturday I will be breaking down Nick Chubb on the YouTube channel!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD