Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, so glad to be back writing and producing content on a regular basis again. Last week's DFS teams was one big success and one struggle.
The Saturday team ranked as follows QB: 1 RB: 1 - 16 WR: 4 - 6 - 8 TE: 0 FLEX: 30 DST: 7 for the weekend. The only big miss was the Tight End and DST.
For Sunday it was a struggle, that team ranked as follows QB: 6 RB: 3 - 14 WR: 15 - 14 - 18 TE: 11 FLEX: 6 DST: 2. Sure the QB was the second best on the Sunday, DST was great, Flex was great and RB1 was ranked third in all games but the Wide Receivers and Tight End crushed any hope of winning big.
Today, like last week, I will give you my DFS teams for the Divisional Round. I will create two optimal lineups with my projections as starting point, one lineup for Saturday and one for Sunday. The scoring will be standard scoring, salary will be $60,000, prices are from FanDuel and I will be needing 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX and 1 DEF. Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Boom: The number represent the chance of a player being above his weekly ceiling. It uses a Poisson Distribution as standing ground. The Poisson distribution is useful for modelling the number of times an event occurs in an interval of time. Meaning that the chance of something will happen independently of previous events. So if a player Booms one week does not mean he will do it again next week, which makes it very useful in our situation.
Sure Dak Prescott has not been one of my favorite fantasy Quarterbacks in 2018 but he is just so much cheaper than the other options at the position this week. Furthermore, what you get with him is not too far behind the rest of the guys that I feel uncomfortable going with him. It is a very favorable situation when I can pay much less and get just a tiny bit less.
Elliott is in the same boat as Prescott. OK I love Elliott as a fantasy option but against Gurley this year, Gurley has been the better player. In this match-up though, Gurley is so much more expensive that it makes no sense in playing him over Elliott, add that the Cowboys have limited almost any Running attack coming their way (except the Colts).
I tried getting Mack on my roster last week and it did not work out. This week I managed to squeeze him in and I'm loving it. I am expecting a shootout between Kansas City and Indianapolis where Mack has a great chance to punch in a score or two.
Hilton is part of that shootout and I love getting him for $7.900! I realized after a while that my team is just Colts and Cowboys players and did not feel too good about that. But after looking at the numbers again and again I saw that the reason for this is that all Chiefs and Rams players are just overpriced compared to their counterparts on the other team.
Gallup keeps getting targets in the red zone and I can't keep him off my roster. There is too much touchdown upside with him right now. The same can't be said of Amari Cooper, but he is there to collect yards for me with potentially taking one to the house.
I could say the exact thing that I said about Prescott about Rivers. Brady and Brees are better options in my book but they cost too much and does not provide enough of a benefit in relation to cost.
Melvin Gordon has since entering the league been one of my favorite fantasy picks and I feel like he finally got what he deserved in 2018. Play calling that can help him get the space he needs to be great. His injury is diagnosed as a sprain and he is expected to play, that is enough for me to put him on my roster.
Mark Ingram is a sneaky play, he's extremely cheap compared to almost all other Running Back options on Sunday and is still very talented. He scores roughly a touchdown in every other game and did not score one last time he played.
Edelman and Allen both have extreme Boom percentages. Edelman especially has a huge chance to Boom this week even if his projection is on the lower side of things. With the Boom chance that high I decided to go with him over players like Golden Tate, Alshon Jeffery and Mike Williams who all have higher projections.
This Sunday there is plenty of options for the Tight End position, we have Ertz, Gates and of course the one I am going with Rob Gronkowski. He has way more risk involved than Ertz but this is DFS and I want that Gronk upside where he just takes over a game and scores twice for 100 yards.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab.
Tomorrow I will dig deeper into Michael Gallup in a new episode of Fantasy Snapshot on the YouTube channel, don't forget to check it out!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD