Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I'm officially back to creating content after a very hectic period in my life. I'm all settled in now and got the apartment in order so that I can focus on fantasy football ones again.
Today, I will give you my DFS team for the Wild Card games. I will create two optimal lineups with my projections as starting point, one lineup for Saturday and one for Sunday. The scoring will be standard scoring, salary will be $60,000, prices are from FanDuel and I will be needing 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX and 1 DEF. Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Boom: The number represent the chance of a player being above his weekly ceiling. It uses a Poisson Distribution as standing ground. The Poisson distribution is useful for modelling the number of times an event occurs in an interval of time. Meaning that the chance of something will happen independently of previous events. So if a player Booms one week does not mean he will do it again next week, which makes it very useful in our situation.
The Saturday team was a little bit easier for me to put together than the Sunday one. According to my numbers the teams are better suited for each other on Saturday, you don't have the great offense (Chargers) vs. great defense (Ravens) situation to the same extent on Saturday. Sure the Cowboys defense is nasty and Indy held Dallas to 0 points when they met a few weeks ago but I still feel more comfortable with this team.
The total salary for the Saturday team is exactly $60,000 which is perfect. I got my two highest projected Running Backs in Elliott and Carson. I really wanted to have Marlon Mack as my flex option for this team but that turned out to mess up the whole optimization and Vyncint Smith became the flex instead. He is somewhat of a gamble but with a touchdown in Week 16 and 5 targets in Week 17 I feel like he might have something going on, he's got an OK projection and is very cheap.
Hilton and Cooper are my second and third highest projected Receivers after DeAndre Hopkins so I feel great about the Wide Receiver position. Lockett ended up being thid guy, which is a great thing too! Dallas have struggled with the deep balls to the left side of the field, a zone where Lockett is deadly.
With Blake Jarwin scoring three touchdowns in Week 17 I went with another Dallas Tight End this time around. With the focus of the others teams being on Elliott, Cooper, Beasley and Jarwin look for Schults to have a 10% chance of scoring a touchdown.
Texans are my highest projected defense for this week and they are cheaper than the Cowboys so that was a no-brainer.
As I stated above, the Sunday team was a bit more difficult to optimize and it ended up having a total salary of $59,800 so I did not spend the entire budget.
Trubisky is my second highest projected Quarterback for Sunday but he has so much less risk than Lamar Jackson and is $300 cheaper so the start of the team is as good as it can be.
Baltimore is the second most difficult team for a Running Back to face at this point in time, only Chicago are a better run defense right now. With that in mind, Melvin Gordon does not feel like a no-brainer but there are just so few options as the Running Backs for the Eagles are less talented and have an even worse situation.
In the passing game the Ravens only rank as the 14th best defense at the moment, so for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams there will be opportunities to score points, maybe not too many points but still enough to be my highest and third highest projected Receivers for Sunday (Alshon Jeffery is second highest). Anthony Miller is a sneaky options as my third Receiver, he has an 11.1 point ceiling with a 3.8% chance of being above that and is decently cheap. With the lack of affordable Receiver options he got the spot.
The Chicago Bears are by far my highest ranked DST for the Wild Card Week and I believe that Kenneth Dixon will score a Touchdown I had to round out the roster with Maxx Williams. Williams was the best Tight End I could afford after getting Dixon and the Bears on my roster.
I feel really good about both teams even if I prefer the team for Saturday, but that is also because all the players are projected to score a little bit less on Sunday. So if you are playing DFS or in a situation where you can pick from both days I would focus on the Saturday games as much as possible.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
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