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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 15


Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I got some exciting news for the future that I want to talk about before we get into the players.

First, during the Live Stream last Sunday I asked people what they wanted for the off-season and for next season in terms of content. It was brought to my attention that people wanted more Live Streams. So, during the off-season the schedule will be a little different this year, there will be one Video, one Live Stream and one article here on the website. The Live Stream will be heavily impacted by You, so it will driven by questions and ideas from y'all, the Faithfuls. If you want scheme fit talk there will be scheme fit talk and so on.

Secondly, I have been involved in a visa process that is slowly coming to an end. That means that in the near future I will be moving to the United States. That means that I will be in the eastern time zone during the off-season and moving forward. I can answer questions more hastily and in a more timely way. I am extremely excited about the move and hope to bring y'all even better content in the future!

Today, I got the regular four must start players and the four high risk - high rewards ones. However, I have not made any changes to the Score Projection site with all the numbers since the game yesterday. Meaning that all Chiefs and Chargers are still on the list with their respective projections. Let's dig in!


Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.

Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.

Boom: The number represent the chance of a player being above his weekly ceiling. It uses a Poisson Distribution as standing ground. The Poisson distribution is useful for modelling the number of times an event occurs in an interval of time. Meaning that the chance of something will happen independently of previous events. So if a player Booms one week does not mean he will do it again next week, which makes it very useful in our situation.


Today I went with my top top ranked players no matter who they are for the must starts. This is the playoffs (or DFS) and there are only top players left now.

With Mahomes off the board with yesterday's game my top Quarterback is Deshaun Watson. He's got the highest projection in a week where not that many Quarterbacks are projected to score high. With 20pts at 53% risk he's a definite start for me this week. So many of the other top Quarterbacks have tough match-ups that facing the team that give up the 10th most points to Quarterbacks feels good.

McCaffrey has the absolute worst opponent for a Running Back in the New Orleans Saints, but you know what, he's still projected as my top back. The Saints have the best record over the entire year against Running Backs, and they have the third best record over the last three weeks. Even with that knowledge I have CMC as the highest projected Running Back, sure he comes with over 60% risk, but that is OK when the projection is that high.

Nick Chubb is my second Running Back and him too has a difficult opponent. For three weeks the Denver defense have given up the second fewest points to Running Backs but right now Chubb and the Browns are on a roll and I really don't want to bench him cause of a bad match-up. He has almost no risk compared to the rest of the players and the highest chance of Booming above his 25.6 ceiling.

Juju Smith-Schuster has had an incredible year and to think that he's still the second highest fantasy scoring Receiver on his team is crazy! With a very favorable match-up against the Patriots I have Smith-Schuster as my go to guy for the position. The Patriots have been trending down on the list of teams that give up points to Receivers, being 12th worst on the year but give up 10th most over the last three weeks, and that includes a game against the Dolphins and one against the Jets.


Tom Brady has more risk than DeShaun Watson and ultimately that is why he's down here and Watson is up there. They have similar difficulty in their match-ups and almost the same projection. Brady has a higher chance of Booming but as I said higher risk. I still love him this week and he could have easily been a must start instead of a high risk - high rewards player.

Dak Prescott could not have made the must start list. He showed against the Eagles just how difficult the situation is in Dallas for the people making decisions. For three quarters it looked like benching him in fantasy was the absolute right call, and then BAM he's QB2 for the week. He still comes with a ton of upside and can take it in for a rushing touchdown at any point, but the question week to week is always, will he even throw for 200?

Kenyan Drake will never score a touchdown like that again, there is just no chance. But, what he will do is frustrate fantasy owners week to week. He's RB18 over the year right now but he's barley the lead back in Miami. What is Kenyan Drake at this point? To me he's a very high risk player that can go off in any game or be a total non-factor, the type of player that I usually hate to have on my team as I can't rely on him week to week. But this is not any week, it is a playoff week and you just might need that big game from him. Gamble at your own risk.

I just wanted to have Amari Cooper on the list. After my analysis on how well he would fit Dak Prescott the week he got traded I tried getting him on all my fantasy teams but with no success. He has torn it up since joining the Cowboys and is WR1 over the last three weeks, and WR1 over the last five weeks as well! There is still doubts surrounding the Dallas pass offense but right there is no doubt about Cooper. As with Brady, he could have just as easily been on the list above, just that the risk of him not reaching the projection is still fairly high and he plays a tough pass defense.

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab.

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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