Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I hope you won your first playoff game or made it to the playoffs! For y'all that play DFS instead with the season over, I hope you started Amari Cooper and Dante Pettis and left D.J. Moore alone. Today I will be focusing on Tight Ends with favorable match-ups and good personal stats to start in Week 15.
I have divided the Tight Ends into three groups of five. The first group is your no brainer group that you will be starting no matter what. You could include Zach Ertz in this group as well, but he is my 6th highest projected one so he just missed out. This first group will get limited attention from me due to them being must starts. I don't think you should be cute and bench any of them, like I said last week on Reddit, don't bench T.Y. for one bad game, don't bench Gronk for a slip on a defensive play. Let's dig in!
Real quick before we get into the more interesting players. This is the projections and numbers I have for the top Tight Ends going into Week 15. There is a clear top dog in Travis Kelce, even with him playing the Los Angeles Chargers, arguably one of the toughest teams for a Tight End to face. His own stats are too impressive to be afraid of a tough defense.
Cameron Brate is looking more and more like Cameron Brate of the past. He's one of Winston's absolute favorite targets in the red zone and playing Baltimore who has a great defense is still a good match-up for him as they have struggled against Tight Ends, giving up 6th most points to the position group if you look at their seasonal average and last three games.
Evans Engram has a tough game coming up against the Titans but I'm not too worried. The Titans rank as one of the best defenses for limiting Tight End fantasy scoring. But they have not really limited any of the top guys. They have played both Ertz and Ebron, Ebron had zero targets in that game and Ertz hurt them for 11.2. With that, I think Engram can be successful and finish the week as TE8.
With Austin Hooper we should be a little bit more worried. The Falcons are out of it so nothing really forcing them to go all in, not that I think they will phone it in vs. the Cardinals at home but it can impact the end result a tiny bit. However, Hooper does get targeted at least 5 times a game so he has the opportunity there, he just has to take advantage of the situation.
I have talked a lot about my thoughts on David Njoku for next year and I stand by that for now and I am very excited to do more research on him this off-season. I think he will take a step up into the top group next year, but for now he's my TE10 for Week 15. He has one of the better match-ups playing the Denver Broncos. They rank as the third best defense for a Tight End to play if you look at the whole year, but that is not all. Cause over the year they have average 10.3 points to Tight Ends, over the last five weeks they have average 14.1 and three week average is 13.2. That means that even with how bad they have been all year, they have had some of their worst weeks leading up to this game.
Kyle Rudolph has the third best match-up in the NFL according to me. That is based on how many points Miami has given up over the year but also the last three weeks. However, Rudolph did not crack the top 10. He has not been a featured player in this Vikings offense this year, and I must stand corrected in thinking Cousins would love to throw it to him. Based on Cousins tendencies in Washington to go to his Tight End I believe so would be the case in Minnesota. Anyway, Rudolph is a fringe start this week, and if I'm rounding out a DFS lineup he is a guy I would start if I'm low on cash.
Herndon has been an interesting guy to follow all year long. For a while it looked like he was going to take of before he stalled and ultimately flat lined. However, with an opponent in Week 15 that give up a ton of points to Tight Ends he's another guy that I am willing to gamble on for cheap. Houston is right now the 7th best team for a Tight End to play against so we might see a big game from him and with a 9.7% chance of being above his ceiling that is not too far away.
Darren Fells is in the same situation as David Njoku except that he's the second Tight End target in Cleveland. I don't see him getting more than two targets but with a weak Denver defense those targets can get him 46 yards.
Maxx Williams and Dallas Goedert are guys that I don't really want to start so I'm not going to make a case for them here. I'm just showing y'all what I have behind Fells. They have OK match-ups that can give them a few yards but they come with really low floors, and their ceilings aren't that much better.
If you are on mobile, go to the tab called ROS Rankings and you will find all the positions.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
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