Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I'm so sorry for missing the Score Projection article last week. I had some business to take care of out of town, will share information about this business in a couple of weeks so I am very excited! I hope y'all made it to your playoffs if the start this week, in the case you have one more week to try to get in I got you covered and if you play DFS this will be gold!
Since I have added Boom and Bust numbers I decided to include the Boom percentage in today's article. If you are uncertain of what I mean when I talk about Booming I have put together a description below as always. Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
Boom: The number represent the chance of a player being above his weekly ceiling. It uses a Poisson Distribution as standing ground. The Poisson distribution is useful for modelling the number of times an event occurs in an interval of time. Meaning that the chance of something will happen independently of previous events. So if a player Booms one week does not mean he will do it again next week, which makes it very useful in our situation.
I feel like a broken record, I just keep nagging y'all about Big Ben. Now he's QB4 over the year but I still don't think he gets the headlines. He's quietly putting together a terrific fantasy year with only one single digit week.
I still don't understand why people question if Nick Chubb should be started. At least four to five times this week have I been asked if he of D.J. Moore should be started. To me this is a knee jerk reaction to Greg Olsen going out and the Panthers having a great match-up in Week 14 and even better in 15 and 16. Check out the Video above or by clicking this link for more on D.J. Moore. Nick Chubb has been of the absolute best backs in the league since he became the lead back in Cleveland. I don't mind the difficult opponent, he needs a starting spot.
I'm guessing Aaron Rodgers will call the plays in reality this week and not sure that is the best for Jones. But with how he's looked and an awful run defense in Atlanta I gotta start him. His ceiling for Week 14 is 20.6 with a Boom chance of 2.2%, so there is not the best of chances for him to be above that, still 12.9 with 48% risk is good enough.
James White is my New England Running back of choice this week. I have said it before though and I say it again, I do not trust Belichick to do anything that makes sense for fantasy football. However, his numbers are too good to ignore. Maybe I should have put him in the High Risk - High Reward table instead?
Rivers has yet to score single digits in 2018 and that is pretty remarkable. However, his closest game to 30 points was 27, and that was in Week 1. So for him to score a bunch of points there is still uncertainty. But, with a Boom chance of 24.6% to be above 22.9 he comes with some upside. His risk of not reaching 21.5 is still almost 70% so he has a huge variation for this week.
Winston has a higher ceiling and with that a lower Boom chance. The 26.2 ceiling is still something that you should keep in mind this week as every point matters more than ever. I'm a little bit more open to play the risky Quarterback with higher upside than I normally am in the regular season.
D'onta Foreman this and D'onta Foreman that. Nah, I'm going with Lamar Miller for Week 14. I like what he's been able to do lately and over the course of the season he's managed to land a top 20RB spot. With all the slack he gets, he does fill a spot on your roster that is needed. Miller is that flex player you're usually not that happy to start but at the end of the season he's disappointed you in some games and actually won you a game or two. This is a middle game for him, where I don't see him scoring 20 but a solid 12.4 which will get you to round two of your playoffs.
Dante Pettis is a clear knee jerk pick from my side. He has scored so much in the last two games that I could not keep him of this list. He has an OK match-up and with seven targets in each of the last two games there is plenty of opportunity for him to score points. Sure Marquise Goodwin is back in practice which might take away some looks from Pettis, but seeing how well he's done with what he has been given it will be difficult to not keep getting him the ball. More on Pettis will come tomorrow in my Snapshot Video on YouTube.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD