Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, as promised, here is the Quarterback-centric article. I have spent the entire morning looking at everything that impacts Quarterback's fantasy numbers and have concluded that the most important thing this year is having a stud QB not great match-ups. As there is a ton of things to get to I will keep the intro short again so let's dig in!
For the yards, I analyzed how many yards per game a team threw for, how many they ran for and put that into relation to how much their opponent have been given up over the year. What is being presented below is only the pass yards to keep the tables a bit cleaner. But the Rush yards have been accounted for as well.
For touchdowns, I analyzed how many touchdowns a Quarterback usually throws and how many pass touchdowns a defense usually gives up. So if a team usually give up a lot of rush touchdowns instead of passing ones, that will be beneficial for a pass happy QB, compared to someone like Cam Newton.
For interceptions, I did the same thing as with the other factors. If a Quarterback throws many interceptions vs. a team that usually intercepts the ball the projected interceptions will be higher.
What is not seen is the rush touchdowns and -0.5 points per sack and. Does numbers are very low even if they impact the final projection.
Like I said above, this year it was all about the stud Quarterbacks. There is little room for outsiders in the top five each week. Sure we have Mitch Trubisky and Phillip Rivers. But they have been strong performers all year too.
The first none-stud Quarterback on my list for Week 14 was Jameis Winston at nine. There just isn't that many great match-ups for weaker Quarterbacks in Week 14. So for the first week in the fantasy playoffs all you can do is hope you already own one of these guys and if you have been streaming Quarterbacks aim for Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston that might still be available in your league.
For Week 15 Mahomes and Brees changes spot as the Chargers tend to give up more passing yards than the Ravens and Carolina interception Brees one time. But it is still down to the two best performing Quarterbacks.
However, in Week 15 we have some new guys on the list in Jared Goff, Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger. But hey, who knew they are all top 10 fantasy Quarterbacks. Still no outside with a crazy good fit for Week 15.
The first outsider comes in at 10 and that is Derek Carr. He plays the Cincinnati Bengals that week and that is a very good match-up for him. Even if it isn't enough to push him into the top five.
Cam Newton has the absolute best match-up in Week 16. And as you can see from the numbers in the table it does not come from passing. The Falcons give up so many yards to rushing Quarterbacks that Newton will have a field day.
As I'm writing this article I'm starting to realize that the numbers might be better for people who play a lot of DFS. These numbers are show just how small the difference is between the best Quarterbacks and can help you make that final decision as we move forward. So, for next week I'll add Draft Kings or Fan Duel value on the players so that you can make a more informed decision. This will also be a bigger benefit for everyone who did not make the fantasy playoffs but still want to play.
All in all, if you have the best players they will most likely still be the best players after Weeks 14-16. Their opponents are not good enough to hamper their production to the extent that you don't want to start them.
The only player that will lose value in the fantasy playoffs is Matt Ryan. He has the fifth best situation for those weeks while he currently rank as QB3. Mahomes and Brees will retain their positions and continue to be the best. Newton and Roethlisberger especially will climb a couple of positions and will be higher scoring Quarterbacks than Ryan down the stretch.
If you are on mobile, go to the tab called ROS Rankings and you will find all the positions.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
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