Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, happy Thanksgiving! I hope y'all are having and will continue to have a great day with loved ones. I have only celebrated two Thanksgivings in my entire life as I am not an American but have an American fiancee. For me who did not grow up celebrating the holiday it has a different meaning for me. I have just learned to celebrate it with family compared to dreading the day where I can't watch the Cowboys play as I have school tomorrow and the game is too late. What I'm trying to say is, from someone who loves football, don't forget the other important things in life as well.
Enough with me trying to be deep. Today I have the regular score projections for y'all and would like to plug my latest content as well. I have worked hard to create a concept for a new fantasy football show on my YouTube channel and would love to hear what y'all think about it! It is a 10 minute un-edited show with highlights and stats about players of interest for the week. Let me know what's good and bad on twitter @csdfantasy or go to the YouTube channel and leave me a comment, I appreciate all feedback and criticism and want to make the show as good as possible for You the viewer! Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Opp. Rank: Ranking of the players weekly opponent. The higher the number the less points the opponent give up to the player's position. If the Opp. Rank is 1 that means that they are the team that give up the most amount of points to the player's position in the league.
Cam Newton does not have the most favorable match-up but even when he had a tough game against Detroit last week, he scored 24.5 points. That is a lot of safety tied up into the Quarterback position when you play him. The reason I put him on here is that I have seen people ask if they should bench him this week and have been trying to trade him away. I don't recommend doing this as he has the best Quarterback schedule Weeks 13-16, trust your studs.
I talked about Mixon and Lindsay in the video yesterday and what I tried to focus on is just how much I like them moving forward. I trust Mixon to have a good game in Week 12 and loving Lindsay more and more each week. Lindsay is playing more and more like the main guy in Denver without any question. How well he's done it in a committee leads me to believe he will be even better as the lead guy. Mixon is sneaking along not being talked about too much but he has had an OK season. He's currently RB13 and has had five usable weeks which is alright.
I have been quiet about James White for a few weeks but he's back in my crosshairs again. He had a terrible game against the Titans last week with only one carry but with eight targets. I'm not worried about him at all this week and I can't wait for him to light it up after an awful fantasy performance.
Fitzpatrick is out Winston is in. He of course comes with more risk than business (sorry for the bad joke). But the risk is something you know about when you are starting a Tampa Quarterback, they can be pulled after two quarters as likely as they throw five touchdowns.
Earlier in the year I discussed my "Dart" draft process. When I'm not too high on the Running Backs that I drafted I throw "Darts" at players that had the potential to be lead backs after a while into the season. Players like Mack, Chubb, AP, Kerryon Johnson and Jamaal Williams. Four out of five have turned out to be alright or good options even if there was a long wait to get there. Chubb is now the lead back in Cleveland and that comes with tons of upside even if he's still risky.
Smith went from having a season high of six targets to 13 in Week 11. That is a helluva increase and sure the Saints have injury issues with the WR position but I still see him as plenty risky with a lot of upside. I don't expect him to all of a sudden produce double digit fantasy points on a weekly basis and be a must start. I like him and think he's a good starter but I don't expect him to save my team.
First DST to make the Score Projection article is the Chicago Bears. Great match-up vs. a team that give up a ton of points to opposing DSTs. But as with any DST that gets a double digit projection, there will be risk. Remember the Jets gave up 41 points to the Bills. There's always a possibility that a team has the other team's number and your DST will under perform. That's why the Bears did not make the must start list and had to be placed all the way down here.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD