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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 11


Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I hope y'all are doing good wherever you are! Before I get into the must starts and high risk players of these week I would like to thank everyone that joined me last Sunday for the Live Stream! It was a great stream and I had a great time answering questions. I hope to see y'all again this Sunday at 12pm ET.

With the Live Stream being so popular I have decided to add a similar Video to the YouTube Channel. Starting next week I will be answering questions and analyzing a group of players heading into Week 12.

Enough about the future, for today I have another group of must starts for you and the regular high risk high reward player. Last week one of the must starts got injured and did not score anything, Big Ben was QB1 and the other was just start-able. For the high risk players, Aaron Jones and Baker Mayfield made it big while Tevin Coleman and Marlon Mack busted completely. Let's dig in!


I decided to go a little bit safer with the must starts this week. Sure I did not pick Antonio Brown and Patrick Mahomes but I still view these guys as borderline must starts each week.

Philip Rivers is the first man up. I have been sneakily admiring Rivers as a fantasy option this year compared to strongly being against him in the past. He has showcased a much higher floor compared to previous seasons, a stat that I highly value when it comes to Quarterbacks. With a decently high projection with below 50% risk of not reaching the projection I like him a lot in Week 11. His matchup is not the best but I'm not worried, he will get me the points I need to win.

The Rams Receivers have frequently been featured on my must start list week in and week out. Their situation is just so good and not just that, they are also talented as individuals. Cooks is the guy I have my eye on for Week 11. Kansas City are slowly but surely giving up fewer and fewer points to WIde Receivers but this game has everything you need for a shootout, plus, no Cooper Kupp.

Davante Adams is me being a little bit of a chicken this week. He's probably a must start each week but I wanted to show him off just to emphasize how safe he is to play this week. The Seahawks give up a fair amount of points to Wide Receivers each week and Adams keeps scoring touchdowns. We can talk all we want about St. Brown and MVS but Adams is the go to guy and with a 12.8 point projection he is a no-brainer. 29% risk of not reaching 12.8 is almost criminal.

Trey Burton's projection is not the highest but for Tight Ends this places him as the 9th highest. However, when you look at the Tight Ends above him, they all have risks of 50-60% while Burton is down at 32%. That means that he might not score as much but he is a much safer play. I like that about him and the fact that he plays a team that tends to give up points to Tight Ends makes me sleep sound.


Big name with a ton of risk! You probably are starting these guys but you should know how much risk they come with this week. Usually I showcase lesser names on this list but today I wanted to show just how much risk some bigger names come with.

Russell Wilson has not been close to what he was in fantasy last year but with strong performances in his last four games things are looking up. Based on his own trends and that he's playing at home I got him for a high 21.8 points this week. But, the Packers have been pretty darn good at limiting Quarterbacks so he comes with significant amount of risk as well.

CMC is looking more and more like the guy that was advertised coming into the league. However, his scoring has been up and down when you look over the season as a whole. Terrible first game, followed by three good ones, two bad and three good again. Furthermore, there is not clear trend against what type of defense he will dominate against. He has struggled against top 10 run defenses you might think since Dallas, Philly and Washington held him to less than 8.1 points, but then he goes and score 17.6 against Baltimore and 31.9 against Pittsburgh, nr:1 and nr:6.

I tried to hard to trade for David Johnson a few weeks ago but could not make it happen. Now he's had his biggest game of the year and the trade dreams died with it. His risk mainly comes from having a 13 point season average. That impacts the risk formula greatly but should not necessarily scare you away from him. Usually I pick players that are more question marks for this list, but I wanted to show that even studs can come with plenty of risk too. I high risk does not always mean you need to be careful in your decision.

However, for Allen Robinson you should be worried. 94% risk is crazy high and he's playing one of the toughest pass defenses in the Minnesota Vikings. I was very surprised when my algorithm gave me 14.3 points for him this week and then I saw the 94% risk and thought, yeah that makes more sense. After the dud against New England in Week 7 we finally saw the old Robinson against Detroit last week with over 100 yards and two touchdowns. Two touchdowns will not be the norm moving forward, but I think it is safe to say that he needed that game to get his confidence back up and it should lead to him being a much more fantasy relevant player moving forward.

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab.

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


#PhilipRivers #BrandinCooks #DavanteAdams #TreyBurton #RussellWIlson #ChristianMcCaffrey #DavidJohnson #AllenRoinson