Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I decided to change this up a bit. So instead of looking straight at the Waiver Wire I will look further ahead, to the playoffs. This means that some of these players might not be available in your league and that some should be picked up now and stashed until Week 14.
You can of course find the ROS Numbers links and the statistical analysis down below. But talking more about what today will bring. This will be a very number heavy article with the four players that have the best schedule in weeks 14-16. This of course does not mean that all should be played just because they have an easy opponent. Let's dig in!
Most of the Quarterbacks here are of course already owned in your leagues but you might have two Quarterbacks, play a lot of DFS or can trade for one of them. This actually goes for a lot of players today as some will be very high profile while others are outsiders.
The only real outsider in the Quarterback group is Dak Prescott. He has not been a fantasy stud in 2018 and has at times looked really poor. But, with three of his last four games being above 20 fantasy points he is starting be a little bit more of a fantasy option. His seasonal average has been 16.3 so three games above 20 is a big improvement. Add that the teams he faces in Week 14-16 give up 20.5 points on average to Quarterbacks and he is someone you might want to pick up.
Royce Freeman is on pace to start practicing again this week but that does not mean that Lindsay won't continue to be a good start in fantasy. He has the easiest schedule of any Running Back in Weeks 14-16. His opponents give up 22.3 points on average to running backs while Lindsay is averaging 11 points on his own. I'm not saying he's an RB1 but a good RB2.
The same can be said of Alex Collins. He faces really terrible run defenses in the fantasy playoffs, but his own production will hinder him from being great. I see him more of a flex option or a player to gamble on. I don't mind stashing him, seeing how he looks up until the playoffs.
Devin Funchess has no real fantasy value by himself. But in the last weeks of the season he's playing the Browns, Saints and Falcons. Sure, the Browns aren't a pushover team in the air no more but the other two are. I expect Funchess and D.J. Moore to be dangerous weapons to throw in the mix in your semi and final game of the season.
To me these are the more interesting position groups we are now moving on too. The reason for this is that they are more likely to be available in your leagues compared to the big three. Starting with Tight Ends we have Ben Watson and Njoku. Both will be facing teams that combined are in a league of their own when it comes to giving up points to Tight Ends.
Their own production have not been the most reliable to say the least. However, there are not that many Tight Ends you can say that about and those Tight Ends are already owned everywhere. Why not grab one of these guys and stream him in the playoffs? This way you make sure that you have a guy that is in a favorable matchup and you don't have to start Jordan Reed in Week 16? The reason I mentioned Reed is because he faces the best Tight End defense in the league that week, the Titans.
I know, I know, Kickers is not a sexy position to talk about but you might need one of them to perform to win. We are talking fantasy playoffs, there are no easy games and every little advantage you can get over your opponent counts.
Only one of these Kickers ranks in the top 10 this year but have the four easiest schedules for Kickers. That means that they are playing teams that give up yards, but force opponents to settle for field goals. I love getting an advantage when it comes to these un-sexy position groups, and I just put in a claim for Dustin Hopkins and two four Ryan Succop who did not make this list as he has the fifth best schedule in the playoffs. I should mention that Succop has the second best schedule if you count all remaining games.
If you look at their own numbers, I prefer to get Dustin Hopkins in as many leagues as I can for the playoffs. He has highest floor which gives me cause to believe that I can count on him week to week and with playing opponents that suits Kickers a believe that he can perform big as well.
The most interesting position group is the DST one and I will spend an entire article about them next week. So for now I will only say, these are the four DST that I expect to be some of the absolute best in the fantasy playoffs. It will be somewhat difficult to count on the Jets if they continue the dark path they are on right now, but we will know more after this week.
As I said, I will give DSTs a whole article next week. It will be a full analysis of all Quarterbacks in the league to figure out who throws the most interceptions, give up the most sacks and is the worst at scoring touchdowns. That will be combined with the teams that sack the most, intercept the most and give up least touchdowns and so on. By doing the full analysis we will have a clear picture of what DST should be played in the playoffs.
If you are on mobile, go to the tab called ROS Rankings and you will find all the positions.
I made 275 Projections with Probabilities for Week 10.
I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 275 Projection and Probabilities I had 185 Correct and 90 Incorrect. That means that 67% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 10.
However, it also means that this was the worst week since Week 1 of 2017 when it comes to the projections. I am terrible sorry about this and as y'all know, I live and die with these projections. I will work even harder to give you an even better opportunity to win in Week 11!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
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