Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I was very excited to go back and look at the Must Starts and High Risk players from last week. All but one produced really well, only Tarik Cohen did not come close to his projection our outscored it. The High Risk players scored within 1-2 points of their projection expect Greg Olsen who really boomed. Robert Woods was a bit lower than projected but still star table as WR28.
With all that in mind I am very excited to share with all y'all the players this week and also showcase a new column to the tables below. I have removed the Probability as it is just the reverse of the risk so I can still talk about both without taking up space in the table. Instead, I have added the rank of the opposing team. Meaning, for Tyler Boyd in Week 10, he faces the best opponent for Wide Receivers in the New Orleans Saints giving him an Opp. Rank of 1.
Tomorrow I am looking into Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the YouTube channel and if you missed the Kenyan Drake Video from yesterday, just scroll down and give it a look. Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
I'm not someone that usually plays Big Ben in fantasy. His numbers tend to consist of way to much variance for me to be interested. However, something has happened in 2018, his floor is on par with players like Alex Smith and Tom Brady while keeping his usual high ceiling. This makes him far more interesting as an option. For Week 10 he comes with some risk but I have reworked the algorithm for the projection somewhat so I expect the risk to rise a little bit. I'm starting Roethlisberger without a second thought this time around.
With the Bengals back from their BYE week and with A.J. Green out, their most dangerous offensive weapon are Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd. That means that both of them land on this list. Mixon not because the Saints give up a ton of points to Running Backs, as you can see they rank as the 27th most difficult team to face for Backs but for his own ability and a ton of opportunity. The opportunity is there for Boyd too but he benefits from the Saints lack of pass defense. It seems that every team the Saints play will score points so I don't mind a Bengals stack.
Last week I had Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks on the must start list but this week I like Cooper Kupp a little bit more. He's sporting a high projection with a very low risk for Wide Receivers. This makes his extremely valuable and a must start. Sometimes I regret trading him away in the off-season but then I remember that I got rid of Dak and got Evans in the same trade, anyway, I love Kupp and you need him in your lineup!
Baker Mayfield has not shown that he should be a consideration in fantasy so far ranking 27th among Quarterbacks and only ONE usable week (meaning a top 12 finish). That is not good at all and has me really second guessing putting him on this list. But then again, this is high risk high reward and if you other option is Dak Prescott, why not gamble on Mayfield playing against the team that give up third most points to Quarterbacks?
Marlon Mack could have easily been put on the Must Start list but with the amount of risk he comes with he had to be placed here. With a projection of 21.4 though it is hard to not play him even with the difficult opponent. I would much rather go with Mack than I would with someone like Jordan Howard who comes with an 11 point projection with 70% risk. It makes no sense in going for him when Mack's projection is this high.
Coleman also comes with a ton of risk and that is due to him only scoring above 15 fantasy points one time this season. Thanks to that game, who happened to be last week he got a much higher projection for this week. He has been around 10-12 points before but now showed that he can score much more and for that I would like to gamble on him to do something similar against a weak run defense.
Aaron Jones had a much harder time than I predicted against the Patriots and ended up being 3.3 points short of his projection. This does not concern me too much as the Dolphins are a much easier run defense for him. I don't expect him to be blowing you away when it comes to points but double digit fantasy points is still a possibility even if his projection is a fraction below that.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD