Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, not to be reactionary or anything but fire Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan. OK, so now that that is taken care of let's talk about today's article, the week and fantasy football. Today I am looking more into players you should pick up that can impact your entire season more than they can this week. They are still owned in less than 70% of leagues and in fact all our below 50% today.
Furthermore, this week is already a little bit planned out as "GeorgeKitleHypeTrain" suggested a Head-2-Head Video with George Kittle and Zach Ertz. This Video will be published on Saturday morning. "u/_ReCover_" suggested a Video with Kenyan Drake so their will be a Snapshot Video on him tomorrow. If you want me to look at a specific matchup or a specific player, hit me up on twitter @csdfantasy or leave a comment on a YouTube Video and I will make sure to respond! Let's dig in!
To get this article a little bit more manageable I decided to divide all the players into two groups. This first group is four players that have have the some of the best schedules in the league, but not the most inspiring numbers.
D.J. Moore has a fairly low projection going into Week 10 and a very low floor. However, he does have the best schedule for Wide Receivers in the entire NFL. Sure his production has not been what he thought it was going to be and the Carolina offense has so many other pieces that the opportunity isn't always there for him. But, I do think he's worth a look considering how easy schedule he has and how many points they score at the moment.
Christian Kirk is another Receiver with an easy schedule. He does however play for a much worse offense with a less productive Quarterback. What speaks for Kirk is that he has better numbers than Moore. He has showed us that he can score fantasy points even if not too many. With an extremely low ownership he should be available in your league if you need someone to gamble on or fill in for an injury.
Ben Watson is starting to get going with two games in a row with double digit fantasy points. There seems to be no stopping the New Orleans offense at the moment and Watson has the best situation of all Saints players moving forward. With that statement I don't mean that he's in a better situation than the studs on the team, but he has an easier path than Alvin Kamara who has the 26th hardest schedule in the league. I just put in a huge waiver claim for him in one league that I hope pays off big!
Michael Gallup is the biggest gamble of these guys. He has ton of risk, low floor, ceiling and projection. What gets him on the list is the second easiest schedule for Wide Receivers, and that is also the reason that I tried to trade for Amari Cooper last week. I don't think the Cowboys pass offense is good, not at all actually. But that does not mean that Gallup can't score fantasy points. His target share has gone up steadily since the start of the season and even with Cooper in the lineup he got 6 targets against the Titans, which is his highest of his career.
On to the next group! This group has more difficult schedules moving forward even if Ito Smith and Chris Herndon doesn't have hard schedules. Furthermore, these players have more impressive numbers that they can hang their hat on.
Trubisky, Trubisky, Trubisky, your team scored 41 points this weekend and you gave me 8 fantasy points... My projection for his was way off in Week 9 but that does not mean that I have lost faith in him. He still has very impressive numbers going forward and is still under-owned seeing as he is the 9th highest scoring fantasy Quarterback at the moment.
Ito Smith and Tevin Coleman are splitting snaps at the moment and while Coleman is getting the majority of the carries Smith is the lesser owned guy which lands him a spot on this list. His numbers aren't crazy impressive but enough to make me look twice. He is very touchdown reliant to get you a good amount points so you do need to consider his matchups and the expected game script before starting him, but I got that for you week to week so no problem. 12th best schedule for Running Backs is not to shabby either.
Herndon did not have a touchdown in Week 9 but he did have four targets which is decent. The best thing is that he got 62 yards on the four catches. So four for four with good yards per catch and we got a nice floor for a Tight End moving forward. His floor is actually so high that he has the 7th highest in the league for Tight Ends. This is very impressive for a guy that is owned in less than 5% of leagues and on a very limited offense. This is the sleeper Tight End you are looking for!
I have been so excited about Tyler Lockett that David Moore has almost passed me by. With his 1.6 fantasy points in Week 9 people will forget how good he has been for three weeks. Add that Week 9 was the game with most targets for him and we at least got something positive. We have a player with a 14.5 ceiling, that makes him the 26th best Receiver in that category, maybe doesn't sound like a good ranking, but for what you pay, this is great. In a deeper league or in a league where you start three Wide Receivers, David Moore is great to have.
ROS Rankings Week 9 and Beyond
If you are on mobile, go to the tab called ROS Rankings and you will find all the positions.
I made 259 Projections with Probabilities for Week 9.
I measure with 30% accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30% or below I failed or if a player had 70% probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 259 Projection and Probabilities I had 198 Correct and 61 Incorrect. That means that 76% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 9.
In Week 8 I had a 80% hit rate on my Projections so unfortunately this was a step back that I did not anticipate. I have worked tirelessly today to fix this issue and will continue to do so until the projection always are correct. Spoilers, that will never happen but we can try!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD