Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, been tinkering a lot with the algorithm this week to make that final push towards an above 80% hit rate on the projections. This week's focus has been on the Quarterbacks and especially on how a previous game impacts the scoring in the next one.
Some interesting things that I have implemented into the algorithm is that on average a Quarterback that lost the previous game scores 0.2 points more on average in his upcoming game and that a Quarterback that won scores 0.3 points less in the next game. These numbers are don't say too much unless we know how what they did in that last game so I also have taken their scoring in the game into account. With these changes I anticipate an 8% more accurate projection for Quarterbacks moving forward. Not much but it is something.
There is a special section at the end of this article. For y'all that read last week's article it will be easy to guess what it is about. Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Matt Ryan is back from his bye and back in as your starting Quarterback in all your lineups, OK, good. I'm glad we got that taken care of. No, but seriously, he should be back to being one of the guys that you should never question at your starting position. I got a ton of questions about Cam Newton last week and of course you had to start him, you don't swap your fantasy superstar Quarterback to chase the dragon with Andy Dalton or Mith Trubisky, even though I like them too, just not enough to bench the fantasy elites.
Cohen, I apologize to you. I was wrong to say that you had a lot of risk against the Jets and for that I have put you on the must start list. There are not many players with an upwards facing curve as nice as Cohen's. First three weeks he was a none factor in fantasy and now last four weeks he's a stud and the Bears offense are starting to score a lot more points. The opportunity has not changed too much but the execution is now there and you can see it in his numbers.
I love both Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks this week and not just that, I love them both moving forward as well. They have the 5th best schedules for Wide Receivers in the league and are on a high powered offense that just do whatever they want almost every game. They had a bit of a setback last week but against New Orleans they will be more than fine, they will be great. Start both of them and feel comfortable riding the McVay train to victory.
Last week two out of the four high risk - high reward players outscored their projections while two were no where close. I think that is a perfect example of the type of players I try to spotlight in this segment.
For Wilson, the season has been far below what he usually does in fantasy. But as we know the Seahawks usually takes some time to get going and over the last few weeks Wilson is starting to score a bit more. This is a good trend that I think has a chance to continue against the Chargers who are a middle of the pack defense against Quarterbacks.
Speaking of the Chargers and Seahawks game. There has been a Tyrell Williams bandwagon gaining traction over the last two weeks while Mike Williams has been forgotten. This is bound to change this week with a touchdown and 50-ish yards for him. For Williams I have a Fantasy Snapshot Video coming out tomorrow that you should take a look at here on the website.
Alex Collins is up and down and up and down and this game is very risky to start him. With that said, he does come with a good chunk of upside if all things falls right for him. The thing is that I had to pick one between him and Buck Allen which is why the risk is so high. I am sure that one of them will score a touchdown against the Steelers I just don't know who it will be.
Greg Olsen had his first big game of the season last week and with an extremely favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers he has a chance to be great again. Usually his risk would not be this high but as he's only played three full games this year the algorithm does not trust him too much yet.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD