Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I wish that Amari Cooper wasn't on a bye this week. Oh, how I wish that he would play so we could spend an entire segment and video on his play style and how he matches with the Cowboys. However, what is great about sports is that you more often that not only have to wait another week for a shot at doing something great. Same thing here, so next week will be Amari Cooper week and he will get his own video and segment in next week's Score Projection article. Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
I was looking through all my projections for Quarterbacks when I realized that wow, they are some low projections for Week 8. I really struggled in finding someone that you obviously is not starting like Drew Brees to feature on this list. In the end I went with Mitch Trubsiky who I'm actually starting in one league due to Matt Ryan's bye week. I feel very comfortable starting Trubisky even if I have my issues with his passing game.
I just read that Marlon Mack missed practice today but I still wanted to keep him on the list. If he is good to go on Sunday he is a must start for sure. I talked about how much I liked him in my latest Snapshot Video that you can check out right here.
For some reason I have been bombarded with questions regarding Alshon Jeffery this week and if he should be started. My response is of course you should start him, he has been playing great since he got back. 50/50 of scoring above or below 13.9 points is really good for Wide Receivers and I would not recommend sitting him for Tre'Quan Smith.
First ever Kicker on the must start list and he deserves it! Harrison Butker plays on a high powered offense and is 92% on field goals. He tops the scoring for Kickers right now and if you are thinking of swapping him for someone else cause he kicks too many extra points, don't, enjoy the ride and next year trust my Kicker rankings, they will lead you right.
As I was saying with Trubisky, I had a hard time finding interesting Quarterbacks to feature in this article. Most guys either had incredibly low risk or such a low projection that you would not want to start them anyway. Stafford does have a decent projection with an OK risk factor. He can be a guy you put in but I believe you can find better options.
James White has been great in 2018 and I have a high projection for him in Week 8. However, I do still view him as a high risk player cause of the team he plays on. They are so unpredictable that White can have seven touches one week and then come out and he gets 18 the next one.
As Adam Thielen has solidified himself as Kirk Cousins go to guy and the number one Receiver in Minnesota, Stefon Diggs has had to settle for a more in the back role. He does still come with plenty of upside but extreme risk. If you don't know when James White will get the ball there is a tiny tell when Diggs will get it. He has been targeted way more on the road in 2018 and in Week 8 they are playing at home so be careful.
Brate is playing the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8, one of the teams that give up the most amount of fantasy points to Tight Ends. As y'all know though, he does have to share the Tight End targets with O.J. Howard which is why he is extremely risky. If not for Howard he would have been a lock for me.
For mobile users go to the drop down menu called Score Projections and click the Weekly Score Projection tab.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD