Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today we have so much information that I want to keep this intro short. We have Waiver Wire targets, Rest of Season Rankings and the regular Statistics Analysis. This is a jam packed article so, let's dig in!
OK, I won't spend a bunch of time talking about John Brown again, but for real 40% ownership is a sin that can't be forgiven. Pick him up now, please and thank you.
Another guy that caught my eye working on the numbers today was Giovani Bernard. Since Mixon has returned into the lineup Bernard's ownership has declined down under 70%. This means that he again has to be featured as a target. Sure, he missed Week 7, so you gotta monitor how he's doing right now. But with the Cowboys, Chargers, Titans and Falcons on Bye for Week 8 there are plenty of Running Backs that need to be replaced. If Bernard is healthy he could fill a need for you even if it means that you settle for single digit points.
Mike Davis is another player that could fill the same need as Bernard. With a 4% ownership he should be available in almost every league out there. I have not been the biggest of fans of the Seattle Running Back situation since Lynch left but his numbers are pretty good for the situation.
Another Seahawk that I got my eye on and have had my eye on for a while is Tyler Lockett. He only has two games with single digit fantasy points so far this season and has seen 19% of the target share in Seattle. The guy behind him in target share is Brandon Marshall with 14% so things are looking good. He has a great Quarterback throwing him the ball and is Wilson's favorite target on third down with 14 targets.
I talked a lot about Lindsay last week since he was playing the Cardinals and it worked out pretty well. In Week 8 he's playing the Kansas City Chiefs who just happens to give up 3 points less to Running Backs than the Cardinals. That means that the Chiefs give up 25 points per game to Running Backs, 6.5 points more than the league average. He has a great matchup this week again and as I have been saying, a lot of Running Backs are on Bye so get a replacement while they still are available.
The Rest of Season Rankings here on CSD Fantasy follow the same principle as the pre-season rankings. I analyze the players performances and numbers to arrive at a floor number and a ceiling number. Based on the first seven weeks the numbers will have changed compared to what they were heading into 2018. I player that I had a lower floor for might have raised his and a player that had a high ceiling might have lowered his.
The players that have the highest floors and ceilings in most coveted position groups such as Wide Receiver, Running Back and Quarterback will most likely already be taken in your leagues but for DSTs and Kickers there is plenty of gems to be found. These are position groups that people just draft and forget or they stream them. So DSTs that have tons of value might still be available in your league to be picked up. The same goes for Kickers, they tend to be forgotten and you can find someone like Brett Maher who has been great still available.
You might join in on fantasy a little later and so will do a draft now, then these rankings are perfect for you or if you can't decide on who to drop and who to keep. I just want you to keep in mind that these are for the Rest of the Season and not the regular projections that I have for the players each week.
I made 275 Projections with Probabilities for Week 7.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30 % or below I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 275 Projection and Probabilities I had 218 Correct and 57 Incorrect. That means that 79% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 7.
In Week 6 I had a 83% hit rate on my Projections so the numbers have started to stay a bit more consistent around 80%. If not for me missing the target on around 10-15 Tight Ends in Week 7 the numbers would have been much better.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD