Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, it has been a busy couple of days and I am so happy to be back looking at the projections for Week 7. I have the usual four must starts and 4 high risk - high reward players for you today. This week feels like I am focusing a lot on Andy Dalton so of course he is again discussed in this article but also in a Video that comes out tomorrow.
In the high risk - high reward group I decided to go hard instead of going home. I gathered a group that I don't even feel comfortable starting but I can also see them having great games. These four guys are so risky that I wanted you to have an extra warning so you don't think that because they are on this list they should immediately be in your lineup, those are the Must Start guys. Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Andy freaking Dalton in the waiver wire article on Tuesday, in the score projection article today and also featured in the Snapshot Video tomorrow, what is going on!? Well, as I wrote on Tuesday his schedule moving forward is incredibly. That is the first point, second point is that I don't want to put Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes on this list every week. I mean I know you are starting them, you don't need me to tell you that. Dalton is a fringe guy that you might be streaming and this week he should be in your lineup.
Carlos Hyde has had two quiet weeks but against Tampa Bay in Week 7 he is back to scoring fantasy points. This is a great match-up for him and I expect him to bounce back. His 70% is somewhat high but take into consideration that can score between 6-17 fantasy points. To get a little deep in the math let's break it down. There is a 16% risk he scores below 6 points, 16% chance he scores above 17 points and 30% chance he scores above 13.6. That means there is a 54% chance he scores between 6 and 13.6 and a 14% chance he score between 13.6 and 17, I like my chances with him this week.
The same reasoning as with Hyde can be applied to Boyd. He has almost the exact floor and ceiling but 5 and 18 instead. He is also facing a team that has been leaking points to opponents skill position players. Boyd is also in a team that has almost the perfect amount of weapons for him to be successful. Dalton is good but not great enough so that he can make any Receiver great. Mixon is good but he is not Gurley good where he is the vocal point of the offense. Lastly you have Green who forces the opposing team to focus on him leaving room for Boyd.
O.J. Howard sneaks along with the top Tight Ends in the league and with Winston back who loves throwing touchdowns to just Tight Ends we are looking at a potential breakout candidate. Cleveland is a good defense and have been good against Tight Ends but with how leaky the Tampa defense is they will have to score points and with that comes opportunity for pass catchers.
As I said above these are guys that I am letting you know about. You are desperate you are a gambler with huge ba11$. Eli Manning has a favorable match-up this week and in a game situation where he tends to perform better, playing an above 0.500 team that plays in a dome. However, he has looked like he's done so I am super scared of rolling him out in a seasonal league where I stream. Could see him being started in DFS.
Lindsay and Freeman play the Cardinals so of course their projections are going to be higher than normal. However, the Denver offense has looked stale for a few weeks with none of their Running Backs reaching double digit fantasy points. For this reason I want you to know the risks of playing one of them this week. One of them will likely pop off but telling who is very difficult and you might even be better of starting both.
Taylor Gabriel is a fun guy! I have had a twitter beef with him in the past but have gotten so many questions about starting him this week that I wanted to address him. His match-up is good against the Patriots but we know what Belichick can do against inexperienced Quarterbacks not named Patrick Mahomes. That worries me for the entire Bears offense.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD