Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, time is just flying by and it is already Thursday. After a couple of questionable weeks with 75% hit rate on the projections last week saw an increase to 86%. This is where we want to be and where we should be. There has been a lot of tweaking to get the algorithm above 80% and I feel confident that this is now the case.
Today I got the four must start players and the four high risk high reward ones. The four must starts are filled with players that you probably already are starting but I am also trying to show how confident I am in these four and for you to plan your DFS lineup as well. The high risk high reward players are players that have been better in the past and under performed lately but have a the opportunity to bounce back in Week 6.
To get a searchable table for all players with projection scroll down a little further and there is a link in bold. If you are not familiar with what the numbers below mean please continue to read on, otherwise jump down to the first table. Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Watson has been over 20 fantasy points in four out of his five games so far in 2018. Sure people expected him to light it up like 2017 but being realistic we knew that was not going to happen. He has still been incredibly productive and ranks 5th in the entire league. He played very well against the Dallas Cowboys last week even though their defense played great. Buffalo gives up 15.7 points per game to Quarterbacks and I think that Watson easily gets that.
People have asked me if they should trade David Johnson and I have said calm down. This is a perfect week for a bounce back game for him. Sure his probability is below 50% but he is still a must start for me. If there is a 41% chance of him scoring more than 13.7 points I am still on board with him.
Robert Woods is a must start this week with both Kupp and Cooks being out of it for a few days this week. Right now Kupp is expected to play on Sunday and Cooks was making strides, but with the knowledge of his two main competitors missing practices and maybe not feeling 100% I am loving him this week.
At some point I might need to re-evaluate my hate of Eric Ebron. He keeps showing up on my must start list thanks to his numbers in 2018. I really don't like this but I can't ignore that he has been good for fantasy so far this year. If someone as anti-Ebron as me sees him as a must start I think you should too.
Russell Wilson has not been scoring as many fantasy points as we have gotten used to in the last couple of years and now ranks as QB-18. Furthermore, he only has one game with over 20 fantasy points so far. This makes him a high risk high reward player in Week 6. He is playing the Oakland Raiders, a team that have given up a fair chunk to Quarterbacks. I only own him in one league this week and I will be starting Matt Ryan over him just so you know.
Dalvin Cook is still a question mark for Week 6 but since he is playing the Cardinals, who are the best team for Running Backs he still has potential to have an impact. I will hold on for a few more days to see how he is doing before deciding if I'm starting him or not.
Jarvis Landry is a player that I though would fit nicely into the Cleveland Browns offense this year. Sure, my prediction that Josh Gordon would be off the team was right and the prediction that Landry would see a huge amount of targets is also true but he is just not doing enough with the targets. Out of the 50 highest scoring Wide Receivers so far, Landry ranks as 45th in yards per target and 49th in fantasy points per target, just terrible. With that amount of opportunity he has though he is a great candidate for high risk - high reward.
Austin Hooper is on the pass happy Atlanta Falcons who again are back in the Mercedes Benz Stadium. They are playing the Buccaneers who give up the most amount of points to Tight Ends and second most to Wide Receivers. This is perfect for Hooper and frankly any Falcons pass catcher and for that reason is Hooper on the high risk - high reward list and not on the must start one. There is just so many options for the Falcons in the passing game that there is a change that Hooper gets lost in the mix.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD