Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, this season just keeps on delivering high quality football combined with tons of points which is awesome for us fantasy lovers. My two favorite NFL teams (Cowboys and Falcons) keep on losing but I am still positive about what we are seeing. There is just so much going on in fantasy right now not to be excited.
More things to be excited about is that the projections for week 5 broke the 80% mark for the first time this year with 86% hit rate. This is where I want them to be and I am very happy to get back to providing you more accurate numbers! Let's dig in!
I am like a record on repeat but Tyler Boyd is still on the waiver wire in most leagues and sure he comes with a lot of risk this week but he is still a prime candidate to fix your Receiver problems. For the first five weeks he has scored double digit fantasy points three times and has seen at least seven targets in four games. Dalton has been up and down every other game so far and is looks to have a big one in Week 6 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Titans have been very good against Wide Receivers so far this year but also played some of the most lackluster aerial attacks too so I don't want to give too much into that. Sure, the Ravens had a hard time against the Browns but I expect them to get back on track this week. Brown saw 14 targets against the Browns and if that continues in any form he will have too many opportunities not to provide fantasy points.
Lockett was one of the first players I talked about on the waiver wire in 2018. When Baldwin went down a lot was put on his shoulders and for fantasy he has really showed what he can do. He does not see as many targets as the other guys but he make so much of every one he sees that he currently ranks as Wide Receiver 15! Double digit fantasy points in four out of five games and he plays a terrible pass defense in the Oakland Raiders in Week 6, pick him up.
I want to go back to talk about Andy Dalton again. I know I mentioned him above with Tyler Boyd and how he has been on and off this year. Every other week he has over 20 points and the next week he is somewhat off and gives you 14.5 on average. With that in mind, he had an off game against the Dolphins and now playing against a division rival at home, something he has done before in 2018. That time it was against the Baltimore Ravens and Dalton finished QB-8 with 26.6 points.
Austin Ekeler is again on this list and I love him even more now. Ekeler is RB-15 right now and is a freaking RB-2 on his own team. The Chargers have such a high powered offense that through the first five weeks of the season their RB-1 is RB-3 in fantasy while Ekeler is RB-15, that is amazing! I am currently starting him in every league I own him in and won't bench him unless I have a stud.
Nyheim Hines is the fully new player on this list. I had my eye on him in Week 3 but ran out of time before I could analyze him before Week 4. He will get a full Fantasy Snapshot on Thursday so you can see just how impressive he has been and what he does best. Looking forward to digging deeper into a really fun player that I believe will have a lot of fantasy value going forward!
I made 313 Projections with Probabilities for Week 5.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30 % or below I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 313 Projection and Probabilities I had 270 Correct and 43 Incorrect. That means that 86% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 5.
In Week 4 I had a 75% hit rate on my Projections so now in Week 5 we are seeing the improvement I have been working hard on! I always tinker with the algorithm to make it more accurate and help you make the right lineup decision.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD