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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 5


Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, with apartment hunting in full swing I had to move the Calvin Ridley Video to today so if you have not seen that already be sure to head over to the YouTube channel and learn more about him!

Today, as every Thursday during the season there are new score projections and for the first time in 2018 there are projections for Rookies! I have been bombarded with questions surrounding rookies since the season began and I hate when I don't have a great reply so I am very excited to finally have the rookie numbers done.

To get a searchable table for all players with projection scroll down a little further and there is a link in bold. If you are not familiar with what the numbers below mean please continue to read on, otherwise jump down to the first table. Let's dig in!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.


I know it is kinda weird to have Matt Ryan on this list as I try to pick players that are more question marks that I think should be must starts. But the reason that Ryan is on this list is because I want you to think back to before the season and how you viewed the Quarterback position. There were a few of them who went early, Watson, Rodgers, Brady and even Cousins but if you waited long enough you could have had Ryan and now have the second highest scoring Quarterback in the league. When it comes to Quarterbacks, don't bite on the sexy name, wait and get the cheap option with similar numbers.

Blake Bortles makes my must start this week as he faces one of the strongest offensive units right now in the Kansas City Chiefs. The Jaguars might have to pass a bunch to keep up in this game, even with their strong defense. I am starting Bortles in one league and feel very good about it!

The Legion of Boom era is over and the Seattle Seahawks are vulnerable in the air. With the best offense in the National Football League coming to town Brandin Cooks will light it up! Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp have been getting the most of the spotlight but this week you should really think about having Cooks in your lineup, I know I will!

Adrian Peterson is back from his Bye and with that he goes straight back into your fantasy lineup no questions ask. He has a decent projection with low risk and rested legs. It does not matter that the Saints don't give up that many points to Running Backs, the Redskins want to lean on Peterson to give Alex Smith the space he needs to be great.


Ryan Tannehill had a rough time against the Patriots last week but this time he has a chance to be good for fantasy again. Sure, the Bengals is not a team that just hands out points to Quarterbacks and Tannehill is far from a lock on your team. But if you need a Quarterback and want one with a ton of upside, roll the dice with him.

Dion Lewis has extreme risk this week but a high projection. He is one of my riskiest players this week. His projection mostly comes from playing the Buffalo Bills, a team that loves giving up points to Running Backs. However, his massive risk comes from not producing near enough of what he is capable of doing in the last three weeks.

Westbrook and Moncrief finishes out today's article. They have high projections thanks to playing the Chiefs but also comes with a huge amount of risk. It is so difficult to tell which Jaguars Receiver will get the major share of the good targets and get those points. One or two most certainly will but that uncertainty makes it to where all of them come with a high projection and high risk.

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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