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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 4

Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I got some really interesting starts for you that I think you should consider putting into your lineup. Last week my must starts finished as QB2, RB8, WR34 and TE14. Not the best but the high risk high reward players ended up as QB11, RB12, WR44 and TE8 so that was better! Furthermore, the only players that scored lower than the projection was Tate (-5.7), Cooks (-1.1) and Howard (-0.3) so the numbers where on point, they were just a little too low to make a big fantasy impact!

To get a searchable table for all players with projection scroll down a little further and there is a link in bold. If you are not familiar with what the numbers below mean please continue to read on, otherwise jump down to the first table. Let's dig in!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.

I know that the Baltimore defense don't let up a lot of points to Quarterbacks but Roethlisberger has a record of playing them very well when it comes to fantasy points. It also suits him very well, playing at home vs. a conference rival that has a winning record. Perfect situation for him to do great things!

Carlos Hyde and Isaiah Crowell will be featured in CSD Head-2-Head on the YouTube channel and either of them could have been placed on this list. But as Crowell was there last week I went with Hyde this time. Be sure to check out the video on Saturday!

I was hype on Jesse James last week but it ended up being Vance McDonald who blew up. That does not deter me from placing him on this list when he plays the Ravens. The reason behind this is the same as with Roethlisberger. James usually plays well against AFC teams with a winning record at home and I expect him to ease to a 6.7 score.

Sanders has meshed really well with Case Keenum and have produced way more fantasy points than I would have expected in the first three weeks. With that said, he is a lock for me this week against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are the team that give up second most points to Receivers and have been scoring a ton which leads to the other team passing more. Great opportunity for Sanders to be amazing this week!

Do I even have to explain why Eli Manning is on this list? The New Orleans Saints have been leaking points to Quarterback like they were a Swiss cheese. However, the reason that he is not a must start is that these two teams have played in the past and their matchup have been painted up like high scoring fantasy bonanzas (I am looking at you Adam Aizer) and delivered very little. Manning has a chance to be amazing but it comes with great risk.

Buck Allen has scored a touchdown in all games this year and two in the last game. He has been doing the most with the little opportunity he has. He is still a very risky play but with his ability to catch the ball and create space for himself he is less reliant on rush touches and can be used even when his team is down.

I am running a bit short on time and want people to be able to get the projections before Thursday night football so all I am will say is that Landry and Hooper have good matchups and numbers that should interest you if you are looking for a boom or bust player.

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD

#FantasyFootball #NFLFantasy #BenRoethlisberger #CarlosHyde #JesseJames #EmmanuelSanders #EliManning #BuckALle #AustinHooper #JarvisLandry