Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I must say that I have not started this season as well as I would have liked. I don't want to be a downer or spend too much time talking about my own fantasy teams but I want for y'all to be informed so that there always is transparency between us.
The Projections are still performing well, being at 75% hit rate over three weeks. That is not bad but the goal is to be above 80% as average when the season is over. But my own teams have been struggling, being 2-1, 1-2, 1-2 and 3-0. I have never started a season this bad and I hope for a revival in Week 4.
Without more complaints here are four Quarterbacks that you should be picking up due to the Redskins and Panthers having Bye Weeks and four players that are still under owned based on their projections heading into Week 4.
After the Waiver Wire analysis you can check out how my projections performed in Week 3. Let's dig in!
Today I have divided up the waiver targets into two groups, one Quarterback group and one group of the remaining skill positions which so happens to only be filled by Wide Receivers. The reason for this is as I stated above, the Bye Week for Cam Newton and Alex Smith which will most likely lead to a few of y'all needing a replacement QB.
The first guy up and the one with the most risk associated with him is Joe Flacco. Flacco has started the season very well and have an extremely low ownership percentage meaning that you might even be able to pick him up in 2QB leagues if needed. Furthermore, he is currently ranking as the 14th best fantasy QB and playing the Steelers who have been handing out points to QB like they are handing out Christmas gifts.
There are two players that I feel like a broken record talking about and to no surprise are both of them featured in this article again. Matt Ryan is the first one and I know his ownership is much higher than the rest of the Quarterbacks on this list but please, if he is available in your league, pick him up.
Dalton gets a high projections this week with a 34% risk factor. This is of course due to his own playing but also because he is playing the Falcons in Week 4. The Falcons have lost some of their best defensive players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones which will put them in more shootouts than most teams. Dalton, Green, Boyd and Eifter looks like good plays this week.
Bortles is fourth on this list and is the reserve if you don't have the opportunity to grab any of the other three. He comes with a lower risk but with that comes a lower projection. The Jets have showed that they are a capable defense but Bortles, how bad he can be at real football is still a fantasy option when you are in a bad spot at QB.
First up we have Mike Williams and yes this is somewhat of a overreaction to this week but not entirely. After three weeks Williams has 15 targets and five of these are inside the red zone for three touchdowns. Rivers has leaned on Williams to score those Tight End touchdowns that Gates and Henry has scored in the past. Against the 49ers Williams has another team that gives up a lot of points to Receivers so pick him up and play him.
John Brown again makes this list even with a little bit lower projection for Week 4. He is Flacco's second most targeted player after Crabtree and has done way way more with those targets than Crabtree. If he keeps making plays with the opportunities he gets he will get more of them and by that time he should already be on your roster.
Finally, Kenny Golladay's ownership has gone above 50%! It is still not above 60% so I will keep him on this list until that happens. I love the guy and sure, I think he will have some issues against the Cowboys this week but he should still be on your roster even if you bench him this week. Furthermore, the Fantasy Snapshot on the YouTube Channel will feature Kenny Golladay so be sure to check it out!
Enunwa still comes with a lot of risk this week. However, if you are in a deeper league or a league with a bunch of bench spots he is a stash candidate for later on in the season. He is easily the most targeted Receiver on the Jets and if Darnold can find his groove so can Enunwa.
I made 255 Projections with Probabilities for Week 3.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30 % or below I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 255 Projection and Probabilities I had 191 Correct and 64 Incorrect. That means that 75% of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 3.
In Week 2 I had a 72% hit rate on my Projections so at least I got back closer to the goal of being above 80%. I will be back next week and be even better!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD