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Score Projection & Risk Analysis Week 3


Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I would like to thank everybody that has checked out the YouTube channel in the last couple of weeks! The response to the Videos have been amazing and I am so happy that you enjoy the content and feel that it is helping you in your fantasy decisions.

With that thank you done I want to talk about today's article. As I promised earlier I have been working on improving my algorithm to better project the scoring of every position. Heading into Week 2 I managed to update the Wide Receivers and today the Running Backs got an upgrade. This upgrade is not as big as the one for the Receivers but I am predicting somewhere between 3-5% more accurate projections than previous weeks for the Running Back position.

To get a searchable table for all players with projection scroll down a little further and there is a link in bold. If you are not familiar with what the numbers below mean please continue to read on, otherwise jump down to the first table. Let's dig in!

Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.

Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.

Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.


Matt Ryan again lands on my must start list. I love him this week against the Saints. Not only are they a team he traditionally scores a ton of points on but also based on how the Saints defense has looked in Weeks 1 and 2. We should also not forget the huge improvement in the Atlanta offense from Week 1 to 2. Great week to start Ryan which I am doing in two leagues.

Brandin Cooks has been sneaking along under the radar for the first two weeks. He is currently Wide Receiver 14 and has almost no buzz around him. The Chargers have not shown anything that makes me think that their defense will be amazing without Joey Bosa. I project Cooks to have a above average game with great probability of outscoring his 10.1 points.

Crowell is another guy that is kinda left in the back. He is currently ranked as the 13th best fantasy Running Back and this week is a great opportunity for him to score a bunch of points again. I am not saying that Cleveland's defense isn't improved or that they are terrible. However, they do give up a decent amount of points to Running Backs and Crowell has looked good.

O.J. Howard comes in as my fourth must start player. Pittsburgh has one of the worst defenses when it comes to defending against the Tight End position. That of course comes from playing against Travis Kelce in Week 2 who torched them. Howard has a chance to do the same and continue to build on his great start to the year.


The more risky Quarterback to play this week is Jimmy Garoppolo who I actually will start in one league even if I am not one that usually starts risky Quarterbacks. However, the reason for playing him is his high projection which is top five this week. Playing the Chiefs right now looks like a sure way of racking up fantasy points. They will score a ton on you so you better be ready to score a ton back if you want to stay in the game.

Golden Tate is a guy that I wished I owned in any of my teams this week. Tate is playing a decent defense in the New England Patriots but they still do give up points to Wide Receivers. He has also started the year very well and with Detroit needing a win to change the momentum of their season Tate looks to have a big game. Side note, I also love Kenny Golladay this week but I have talked about him so much lately that I left him out of this article.

Bernard is a huge risk but the Bengals offense is high powered and have looked great the first two games. With Mixon out Bernard looks to be the lead back and it is difficult to say how he will handle that. I mean he has been the lead back before and never really shined in a James Conner type way. Be careful with him this week.

George Kittle is more and more looking like Garoppolo's go to guy and even though he has tremendous risk I can't help to think that he will put up way more than 6.5 points against the Chiefs. I never alter the projections so that is why it is still at 6.5 points even though my thoughts say much more. It will be one of the more interesting plays to keep an eye on in Week 3!

To get to the page with all the Score Projections, Probabilities and Risks click here!

If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.

Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!

The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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