Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, time is flying by and we are already preparing for week 2! I have been hard at work tweaking the projections a little bit more for this week. The new Wide Receiver projections will now be around 5-10% more accurate than previous week due to three new weights in the algorithm. I hope to do this for more position groups as we move forward and the Running Backs are up next!
Today as I did last week I have picked eight players to focus on. Four that I feel are must starts with a probability higher than 60% of reaching their projection and four that I think are worth a shot but come with tremendous risk involved.
To get a searchable table for all players with projection scroll down a little further and there is a link in bold. If you are not familiar with what the numbers below mean please continue to read on, otherwise jump down to the first table. Let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
Alex Smith and Philip Rivers together with Tyrod Taylor are my three favorite streaming Quarterbacks this week. I picked up Taylor and Smith in two leagues to start this weekend and could not be happier. Well I could if I could get Rivers but he wasn't available. Rivers has a little lower projection than Taylor but is a little safer to start so I have him higher. Both Smith and Rivers have mach-ups against teams that gave up a decent amount of points in week one. Furthermore, they both showed how well they can perform in fantasy last week.
Austin Ekeler is a guy I am really excited about this week! I even made a video about him that you can watch here. Fantasy Snapshot Austin Ekeler. Tomorrow I will create another Snapshot video for Alex Collins but anyway. Ekeler has a great opportunity to score a ton of points on a Chargers team that really need a win while facing a Bills team that looked to be terrible on defense against the Ravens.
Kenny Stills is my last must start. His numbers this week speaks for themselves. I am expecting big things from him with relatively low risk. He does not have a ton of competition in the receiving in Miami and playing a Jets team that gave up the 6th most points to Receivers in week 1.
For this week I wanted to go extreme in the Risk column for my High Risk - High Reward players. Paul Richardson is one of the riskiest plays I have on my entire rankings for this week. An 11.1 projection is a good amount of points but not very likely that he'll reach that. I still think that if you want to gamble on him he could be an option to round out an expensive DFS team.
Austin Hooper is also an extremely risky alternative. His upside is not the best one with a 7.3 point projection but for Tight Ends that would have landed him 7th last week and 14th last year. Deeper leagues or DFS is the only options I see for him.
Dion Lewis is a fun start this week. There is plenty of risk involved but not to the point that you should be terrified. The Titans are facing off against the Texans who just last week gave up 5 yards per target to James White. Lewis loves him some short passes to do his thing with. He has a pretty high projection but still five points lower than last week so nothing too crazy.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD