Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, first week of NFL football is in the books and CSD Fantasy is back with the guys you should be targeting on the waiver wire and of course we also go through our projections to see how we did. I myself had a pretty mediocre week 1. My teams got a bit hamstrung by the Cowboys lack of offense and strong defense combined with Fournette and Baldwin leaving the field. I still ended up 3-1 but still not what I was hoping for. Let's dig in!
The Redskins offense is perfect for Alex Smith! They did not try to change what he does best and just kept moving the ball. In leagues where I will be looking to stream my Quarterback or if I just want a stable one I will be looking to get me some Alex Smith. His ownership is above 50% but he should still be available in a lot of 10 team leagues.
Tyler Lockett will be shouldering a bigger load with Doug Baldwin potentially out for the season. Reports say grade 2 tear which typically has 4-12 months of recovery. Baldwin was a guy I was high on in the off-season so him going down will open up a spot on two of my rosters and Lockett will be a guy that might fill that spot. He has a lot of risk involved but has a high projection going into week 2.
Adrian Peterson is an obvious waiver wire target if you did not draft him of course. He is owned in less than half of all leagues which is incredible to me. Did nobody watch him play for the Cardinals? I have him projected to score 13 points against the Colts next week with only 45% risk.
Austin Ekeler and Kenny Golladay are more reactionary waiver targets just based on week one. They still have plenty of risk involved even if Ekeler is just above 30%. However, Running Backs usually have lower risk than Wide Receivers. I am not looking to pick up Ekeler more than in my dynasty league where I had an open roster spot and terrible RB depth.
Yeldon is a solid waiver target if you are a Fournette owner. I have been high on Fournette this off-season too and I knew there was an injury risk with him but his numbers made me a little bit blind. Yeldon can shoulder the bulk of the carries before Fournette is healthy again, if he even misses a game that is. I am not rushing to spend my entire FAAB on him.
In deeper leagues I think you should give Frank Gore another look. He is only owned in 8% of leagues and has a decent projection for week 2. He got nine carries against the Titans in a really strange game and expect him to be around that number for the next coming weeks. He will get you some points but nothing to major. I would not pick him up in ten team leagues and would think twice in twelve team.
I made 251 Projections with Probabilities for Week 1.
I measure with 30 % accuracy, meaning if a player scored over his projection but the probability was 30 % or below I failed or if a player had 70 % probability but scored below his projection I also failed.
Out of the 251 Projection and Probabilities I had 196 Correct and 55 Incorrect. That means that 78.1% % of all the numbers I provided gave You a good opportunity to plan your fantasy lineup for Week 1.
Last year I had a 80.1% % hit rate on my Projections so we are almost at that level in week 1 already!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD