Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are back! The main thing here at CSD Fantasy is finally making it's season debut. The first Score Projection and Risk Analysis of 2018 has a some changes in it compared to previous years. There is no PDF linked that you need to open or spreadsheet you need to click on to get all the projected players. Instead, with the new website you can just click a link and get to our new area!
I also want to remind everyone that last year I measured the success of the projections with a 30% margin and I will lower that to 25% this year to make it even more secure for you. The projections had a 80% reliability so of course I am aiming to raise that and have done some tweaking to the algorithm to make it happen!
With the new website comes some changes to this article as well. Every week before Thursday night football the Score Projections will be posted on the website and you can search for players and see their Projection, Risk and Probability as usual. That means that this article will instead highlight a couple of players that you should be taking another look at. Players that you must start, players to take a shot at and players to stay away from.
In this first Score Projection article I wanted to focus on players that I will be starting this week. I have must starts and high risk - high reward players. For everyone that has never read my Score Projection articles there is a in depth explanation of all the numbers and their meaning below, for everyone else, let's dig in!
Projection: Based on previous stats, trends and performances a player gets a projected score for the week. This number is heavily impacted by things like where the game is played, what team he plays and the players previous games in similar situations and previous games in general.
Probability: To get a better understanding how high the probability of the player to outscore his projected score I showcase a probability percentage. High probability mean that it is very likely that this score will be reached and can be outscored that week. This number is more impacted by previous performances than anything else.
Risk: To make the best start or sit decision for your team I have the Risk number. This is how likely it is that your player will fail to reach his projected number. Sometimes a high risk does not mean that the player is bad, but the chances of him having that big game just that week is less likely. The Probability and Risk are heavily linked meaning that the Risk is also mostly impacted by previous performances.
These four players are to me must starts in week one. Not because their numbers outmatch everyone but also because they are not obvious must starts. I first had Tom Brady, Ezekiel Elliott and Keenan Allen on here but then it hit me, who would not start them? So instead I put together a list of players that I will be starting thanks to their projection, probability and risk for this week.
Matt Ryan (edit: sometimes you are wrong by 6 ish points... my bad) has a very high probability of outscoring 14.1 points which is solid. The 73% keeps him as a very safe Quarterback to start in week 1. I don't care that they are playing the Super Bowl champions, Ryan will get his points this week and will let you start off Week 1 with plenty of points without too much stress.
New England gave up 17.8 on average to Running Backs last year and Lamar Miller does not have too much competition right now so I feel very confident in starting him. 53% Probability could have been higher but it is still enough for me to start him in every league I own him which is two as of this writing moment.
Sterling Shepard was the Receiver of choice for me in week 1. They are playing a crazy good defense in the Jaguars but Shepard has been going unnoticed over this off-season with the Odell Beckham Jr. story, Saquon Barkley and all the Evan Engram this and Evan Engram that. Sterling Shepard is a sneaky start that has a great chance to outscore 7.3 points in Week 1.
Jordan Reed is on pace to start week 1 and with that I will be starting him. 92% probability of outscoring a modest 5.4 score projection. I realize that 5.4 is not the highest of projections but with how secure those points are if he plays there is no way that I can pass up on starting him. It should also be said that 5.4 points is only 0.2 points behind the 10th highest scoring Tight End from week 1 in 2017.
As the title of the table above says, these players are higher risk but also a potentially higher reward than similar players. What I mean by similar players and higher reward is the projection for these players are higher than players with similar probability and risk. So for instance take Allen Robinson, other Receivers with 27% probability have projections of 7-8 points. He is risky but he has way more upside compared to Tavon Austin or Pierre Garcon.
Blake Bortles still has a pretty high probability if you just look at it as a number but with other Quarterbacks that are projected to score 15.5 points he is somewhat risky. I like him as a DFS alternative this week if I don't want to spend money on a Quarterback.
Tyler Eifert's numbers are based on games that he plays and is of course just for this week. I don't suggest that you go out and draft him to be your starter for the entire season but if he is healthy and starting this week I think he will be a top 10 Tight End.
If you would like Projections and Probability done for your entire team, tweet me @csdfantasy with a picture or list of your team and I will make sure you have it before kickoff on Sunday.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD