Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, draft season is upon and I have an analysis of my first draft here for you today. This first draft made me realize that you can prepare how much you want but when your league starts making picks that you never saw coming you have to be on your toes and be able to change your strategy on the go. Usually I like to be a bit more strict to following my plan to the smallest detail but as the draft yesterday took some weird turns I made a decision to take more risks after round 4.
This was a ten team league, standard scoring with 15 rounds of drafting. The most interesting thing about this league is that you don't know you draft spot until two minutes before the draft. This little thing is so that everyone participating has to prepare for any situation. As so happens I got the 10th overall pick which is probably the spot I am the least prepared to draft for.
I hope my change of tactics after four picks combined with me drafting at my worst spot will make for an interesting analysis! If you have remarks about my team please hit me up on twitter @csdfantasy. Let's dig in!
I have been eyeing Leonard Fournette this entire off-season. He has been a guy who's numbers have impressed me a ton! With my four highest ranked Running Backs off the board early and Antonio Brown gone I chose to go with Fournette. He brings a lot of safe points to my team each week with a one game floor of 8.2 and he is the backbone of his team which means he has a massive workload. Very happy with this pick.
Floor: 8.2 Ceiling: 22.6
Having the first pick in round two means that I had back to back picks and as my second highest ranked Wide Receiver was Odell Beckham Jr. a no-brainer choice. He just signed a huge contract which will add a calming effect to the infected situation in New York. OBJ is the focal point of his offense and we know what he can do when it comes to scoring fantasy points. Again with my second pick, very happy!
Floor: 5.2 Ceiling: 20.9
I was crossing my fingers that Devonta Freeman or Mike Evans would fall all the way down to me and as my pick got closer Evans was still on the board. However, two picks before me he was gone. With the addition of Luck back in the Colts offense and Hilton and Evans being so close in my Head-2-Head Video, I decided to go with T.Y. Hilton. Not extremely happy with this pick but it was alright. He still was my 2nd highest ranked player left on the board.
Floor: 1.8 Ceiling: 16.6
My highest ranked player that was left was this guy, Doug Baldwin. I know that I could have picked him first but anyway. Doug Baldwin is a guy that I was very excited to draft early on this year before his injury and maybe even more now. He got back to practice yesterday and has a way too low ADP for the fantasy points he provides. When all is said and done, I think Baldwin might be my best pick in this entire draft.
Floor: 3 Ceiling: 17.9
Here is where the draft takes a turn. As I am waiting for my pick in round five, Joe Mixon, Alex Collins, Kenyan Drake (who I don't like anyway), Jordan Howard and Derrick Henry all fall off the board. This leaves me with none of the Running Backs that I had anticipated to be there for me to pick in the fifth.
My reaction to this is a tactics that I like to call, darting. I draft three-four Running Backs that I might not be sold on but are in a situation that could be great. What I mean is that I basically throw darts at the wall and see what sticks. I am not saying that I just do it randomly but I don't go Tevin Coleman or Dion Lewis for instance as they are RB2's. Instead I went with Marshawn Lynch and Lamar Miller back to back.
Furthermore, I took a shot at Nick Chubb in case he all of a sudden goes off and becomes the lead back in Cleveland. Usually this would not be a pick that I would have done but I was really not happy with my Running Back situation and threw a dart at Chubb and we'll see if it sticks. Adrian Peterson was another dart. We know what he can do when everything works out and he did look pretty good against Denver, if it doesn't work out I am OK with it.
The rest of the team turned out almost exactly the way I wanted it. Quarterbacks starting going off the board in round 9. Stafford and Prescott are guys that I have looked with Matt Ryan as my safety pick. This reminds me of his MVP season, I got him for a 13th round pick and he will provide points. Just because someone did produce a QB5 season does not mean that he won't be productive for a cheap draft pick.
Jordan Reed was a Tight End that I had targeted and was waiting to pick so extremely happy with the 8th round pick. Same with Brandin Cooks, he has a high one game ceiling and is a guy I like to target in the mid rounds. I love the value with getting Cooks, he is talented and has the ability to carry your team for a week and if he fits with Goff it can become something really good.
I was surprised to see that Edelman fell as far as he did. I had no intention to draft him as I don't like the four game suspension but with him in the 11th round I could not help myself. He was my 18th ranked Wide Receiver on my board when adjusting for the four games and getting that much value in round 11 is crazy!
Marquise Goodwin is a guy that I decided to go for without planning on it. I don't like his numbers too much, but there is no denying the chemistry he had with Garoppolo last year.
I have written about drafting like this in many of my previous articles. I go for safe picks early on and start taking shots after round 6. Sure I took more shots in this draft than I usually do, but I am satisfied with my team overall. I even think that I might have the opportunity to trade for a Running Back if none of my darts work out just due to the fact that I am stacked at Wide Receiver.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
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