Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today we are going back to the concept of one of my most read articles from last year. The Best Pick Per Round takes all the elements from the Most Valuable Articles but combines Running Backs, Wide Receivers and Tight Ends into one table.
There will be no Quarterbacks, DSTs or Kickers in this article as their scoring is so vastly different from the other positions. We don't want Quarterbacks and Kickers to dominate every round, that would defeat the purpose. Furthermore, if you have read any of my previous content you know I prefer to wait for Quarterbacks anyway, and that I do love me a good DST and Kicker even if I won't draft them before round 10 in any situation.
If you have read the Most Valuable Wide Receiver and/or Running Back, you know how I define value for those positions and can skip down to the tables below. In case you have not read those two articles, I encourage you to do so but also read the text before the table to understand what numbers impact the rankings. Let's dig in!
The numbers and stats I use to set my draft board is the one game floor and one game ceiling. A quick explanation of the numbers is that the floor is the least amount of points I expect from a player on any given day, this number has a 16% chance of not being reached. The ceiling is the most points I expect, this number has a 16% risk of not being reached.
In rounds 1-4 I like to draft safe players with a high floor but that does not mean that I don't take the ceiling into consideration. I just value the floor higher and I have quantified that value a 20% increase for the floor. A quick example, Player X has a floor of 1 and ceiling of 2. In rounds 1-4 he gets 3.2 Draft Points, 2 from his ceiling and 1.2 from his floor. If the floor was 2 he would have had 4.4 Draft Points.
In rounds 5-6 I just want the best overall player, I don't value the floor or ceiling higher than the other so nothing to calculate here. A 1 point floor and 2 point ceiling equals 3 Draft Points.
In rounds 7 and beyond I value the ceiling more than the floor. I want players that have shown that they have the ability to score a ton of points in one game because that means that they can do it again and maybe on a more consistent basis. Here the ceiling is bumped up with 20% instead of the floor.
Again we have Ezekiel Elliott topping one of my lists. With the news surrounding Travis Frederick and Zack Martin I am a little bit concerned about the Cowboys offense. However, I am not concerned about Elliott, he will still be leaned on and expected to carry that offense on his back. This is something that brings him a ton of safety as a first round pick. He is will 100% be the player I will look to draft in round one and I think you should too!
For the second round I have more concern. Dalvin Cook came out as the best pick in that round but with his small sample size we just can't trust him completely. I would still love to get my hands on Elliott in the first and then go Cook in the second but who would be my second go to guy if Cook is gone or that news come out that he really isn't looking too good? That would be Devonta Freeman followed by Odell Beckham Jr. These two are hand in hand behind Cook and have much larger sample sizes in the NFL.
Doug Baldwin has been confirmed to be ready for week 1 so I can't wait to get him in the fourth round and laugh all the way to a fantasy championship. You get a player that has been way better in fantasy then he gets credit for who also have a great Quarterback throwing him the ball. To round out all the benefits of drafting Baldwin in the fourth we have that he really does not have any real competition for targets in that offense. As long as he is healthy he is a great fantasy option every week.
Allen Hurns has risen slightly in ADP since Tuesday which places him in the 12th round in a 10 team league. That does not change how I feel about him. As I said above, the concern about the Cowboys offense stems more from their line than anything else. So I would maybe not get him in the 12th even if he is the most valuable option there. Wait for him to fall back to the 13th and take a flyer on Jack Doyle instead!
The rest of these guys are late round flyers where you can just say, this is the best guy available let me grab him. For me the player that catch my eye is Frank Gore. I can get Gore as late as I want and get a guy that might even lead the Dolphins offense at the start of the season. I am not saying that Drake won't be the lead back but look at what you are getting and in what round. You are getting a potential lead back for free.
This is the final article preparing you for the upcoming drafts in the next two weeks. I hope CSD Fantasy has been a big help and that you continue to come back during the season to get our weekly score projections and waiver wire articles! We have a lot of new content coming up during the season with some surprises and some classics making a return. Be sure to check out our YouTube Channel where Videos are uploaded twice a week and even more over the next few days.
I want to thank you for sharing this off-season with me and I appreciate all the feedback I get on twitter! We are of course back again on Tuesday but instead of draft preparation there will be draft analysis where I look back at my Monday draft. What I could have done better and what was done really well.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD