Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today we are looking at the most valuable Wide Receivers in each round. This is the last position specific value article before I put everything together on Thursday. The Best Pick Per round article will focus on all position except Quarterbacks and Kickers as their numbers are way off compared to other positions. But as I said today I am focusing on the Wide Receivers, and who you should try to draft in each round.
As with the Running Backs and Quarterbacks, we need to start by defining Value. For the Wide Receivers I value different stats differently depending on which round I am drafting in. This means that a guy that has an ADP that places him in the 5th round will be evaluated differently than a guy in the 1st round.
The numbers and stats I use to set my draft board is the one game floor and one game ceiling. A quick explanation of the numbers is that the floor is the least amount of points I expect from a player on any given day, this number has a 16% chance of not being reached. The ceiling is the most points I expect, this number has a 16% risk of not being reached.
In rounds 1-4 I like to draft safe players with a high floor but that does not mean that I don't take the ceiling into consideration. I just value the floor higher and I have quantified that value a 20% increase for the floor. A quick example, Player X has a floor of 1 and ceiling of 2. In rounds 1-4 he gets 3.2 Draft Points, 2 from his ceiling and 1.2 from his floor. If the floor was 2 he would have had 4.4 Draft Points.
In rounds 5-6 I just want the best overall player, I don't value the floor or ceiling higher than the other so nothing to calculate here. A 1 point floor and 2 point ceiling equals 3 Draft Points.
In rounds 7 and beyond I value the ceiling more than the floor. I want players that have shown that they have the ability to score a ton of points in one game because that means that they can do it again and maybe on a more consistent basis. Here the ceiling is bumped up with 20% instead of the floor. Let's dig in!
I have said it plenty off times this off-season, Antonio Brown is my highest ranked Wide Receiver going into 2018 so there is no surprise that he tops this list too. If you are going Wide Receiver in Round 1 and you have your pick of any of the available players, you should pick AB and be very happy with what you have done.
OBJ is still a great pick for fantasy and with him now falling down to the second round I am even more excited about him! Sure his ADP places him in the early second round, but it is still the best Wide Receiver you can draft in that round.
A.J. Green is one of those guys that people seem to have forgotten in 2018. I look forward to getting him in the third round and watching him give me crazy amount of points for five weeks and decent amount of points for the rest. People are sleeping on the Bengals, but don't forget that usually are a playoff team that gets knocked off in the first round.
As we get deeper into the draft we start seeing more boom or bust guys like Brandin Cooks, Marvin Jones and Robert Woods. These are the players that I love on my team in those rounds! They can have that crazy week where they just carry your entire team even if they are not going to be too consistent over the entire season. But as I have said, I want my early round picks to be the safe guys and my later picks to provide more game breaking abilities.
Speaking of game breaking abilities, I think, even with the news that Martavis Bryant needs to step it up, that he should be in consideration in round 16. I mean, we know what he can do and his stats show that he actually should have been a few rounds higher.
Rishard Matthews makes it into this article thanks to his stats and thanks to me having a soft spot for him. I debated with myself if he should be removed due to his physical status right now. I don't mind taking a flyer on him in round 15 as I believe that he has WR25 potential when he plays.
Allen Hurns in round 13 is truly a valuable pick. When these rounds start rolling in, you are taking chances on players and he has a great situation compared to a lot of other Wide Receivers in round 13. Sterling Shepard and Kelvin Benjamin are other guys in round 13 and I just don't see them being in a better situation. The Cowboys are in a run first offense but they have a ton of targets that left with Witten and Dez that somebody needs to get. Elliott will of course see a bunch of those, but there is still enough to where Hurns can get his due. Throw a round 13 pick on him and see what you got. If it doesn't pay out you can always cut him, it's not like he was your fourth pick.
There are currently no Wide Receiver that has an ADP that places him in the 14th round. I did not miss it, it is intentional that I left that round blank.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD