Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today we are looking at the most valuable fantasy Quarterback in relation to their ADP. As we did with the Running Backs we first have to define what I mean by valuable and the numbers that goes into this list.
I got asked after the Most Valuable Running Backs article where the floor and ceiling comes from and I think I forgot to explain it to new readers so here are two links that explains the numbers in depth. Floor & Ceiling. A quick explanation is that the floor is the least amount of points I expect from a player on any given day, this number has a 16% chance of not being reached. The ceiling is the most points I expect, this number has a 16% risk of not being reached. Let's dig in!
Defining valuable and how it relates to Quarterbacks. With the Running Backs I put more value on a high floor early in the draft while slowly giving more value to the ceiling as the draft went on. For Quarterbacks I have no such thing. I always want a Quarterback that has a high floor, I value that way more than a high ceiling. Since the floor and ceiling numbers are for any given game I want the player that will be least likely to burn me.
All this means that the floor points are worth 20% more than the ceiling points. Example: Andrew Luck Floor 20.2x1.2+ Ceiling 30.3 = 54.5 Draft Points.
The Quarterback position is also much different than the Running Back one. You can find equal or almost equal performers all through the draft while the Running Back position is way more top heavy. This also means that we can't look at the best Quarterback per round and instead just have to compare their Draft Points in relation to their ADP straight up.
Looking closer into the table above I have marked some players in red. These three are Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Philip Rivers. These Quarterbacks are some of the least valuable ones to draft according to my statistics. I am not saying that they are less valuable in regular football but for fantasy you can find similar stats for a much later draft pick.
A closer look at Russell Wilson we see his 41.1 Draft Points are close to Cam Newton and Drew Brees while going over 14 picks before both of them. If you think about drafting a Quarterback early and that is your strategy, sure get Wilson but know that Newton could have given you the same two rounds later.
I have been talking about Matthew Stafford in Quarterback rankings as someone that I will be looking to draft but taking a closer look we see that his value have slipped a little bit when his ADP has risen. Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan can provide you with similar production or at least similar risk for a less valuable draft pick. You can draft Cooper Kupp and Dak Prescott if you skip on Stafford, otherwise you would be getting him plus Kenny Stills. It is as I said how you value players but in my rankings, Prescott and Kupp is a much better combination than Stafford and Stills.
Rivers is a guy that I heard yesterday is an undervalued fantasy Quarterback by the fantasy MVP himself Michael Fabiano. I do not agree with his statement at all! According to me and my numbers I think that Rivers is overvalued even if he's not even a high draft pick. There are too many Quarterbacks that give you the same and better than him way later. I can not see myself getting Rivers in any league this year unless I get him in the last round in my drafts. I would much rather have Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Dak Prescott and Alex Smith than Rivers. This is not a knock on him as a Quarterback but on where he is being drafted. His numbers does not match where he is being drafted.
Quick note on Carson Wentz. He loses a lot of Draft Points due to his Rookie season numbers. The floor and ceiling are calculated from the last three years so having a bad season impacts your numbers a ton when you only played in two.
I know Andrew Luck has been injured but he is so far above the rest of the guys that I believe that he is the most valuable Quarterback you can draft right now. If you can get him at 92nd overall I think you should be extremely happy and enjoy a Quarterback that we have seen be amazing while not paying a top draft pick.
The second and third most valuable Quarterbacks are to me right now Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan. No one believes in them so the draft pick you have to spend is not that high while they have been productive fantasy QBs. Step 1. Wait on Quarterback Step 2. Get one of these two Step 3. Profit
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
#FantasyFootball #NFLFantasy #QuarterbackRankings #Quarterback #Value #QuarterbackValue #AndrewLuck #RussellWIlson #MatthewStafford #MattRyan #DakPrescott #PhilipRivers #AlexSmith #BlakeBortles #TyrodTaylor #CarsonWentz