Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today we are starting a new series here at CSD Fantasy where we will be looking into value for Running Backs, Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers and for all positions combined. We are starting with the Running Backs today and I will explain more about what makes a Running Back valuable later in this article. Let's dig in!
Starting off we need to define what we mean with valuable and value. For this article I have a few different situations where I find certain stats more valuable for instance so it makes it somewhat complicated. However, for valuable I mean that a Running Back's ADP should correspond to his numbers. What I mean by this is that if Running Back A has an ADP of 1 with a floor of 1 and a ceiling of 2 while Running Back B has an ADP of 2 with the same floor and ceiling Running Back B is the more valuable one. You will get the same numbers for a cheaper draft pick.
For the numbers and stats I set my draft board after two numbers while my seasonal score projection is kept in the background. The reason for not involving my score projection in this exercise is that I don't have a projection for all players so that would lead us to compare apples with oranges. Anyway, the numbers we have are the one game floor and the one game ceiling.
In rounds 1-4 I like to draft safe players with a high floor but that does not mean that I don't take the ceiling into consideration. I just value the floor higher and I have quantified that value a 20% increase for the floor. A quick example, Player X has a floor of 1 and ceiling of 2. In rounds 1-4 he gets 3.2 Draft Points, 2 from his ceiling and 1.2 from his floor. If the floor was 2 he would have had 4.4 Draft Points.
In rounds 5-6 I just want the best overall player, I don't value the floor or ceiling higher than the other so nothing to calculate here. A 1 point floor and 2 point ceiling equals 3 Draft Points.
In rounds 7 and beyond I value the ceiling more than the floor. I want players that have shown that they have the ability to score a ton of points in one game because that means that they can do it again and maybe on a more consistent basis. Here the ceiling is bumped up with 20% instead of the floor.
I know this is a lot to take in but it will all become clearer with this table below!
There you have it. The most valuable Running Back in rounds 1-16 based on the information provided in all the Running Back rankings that you also can find here!
There are some rounds where almost no Running Back is currently being drafted so you have to take that into consideration. For instance, there is only Carlos Hyde going in the 9th right now and in the 4th Derrick Henry's only competition is Kenyan Drake. Otherwise, this is what I go by when I set my draft board.
Almost everyone on this list are players that I have talked about in previous articles as players that I would like to draft and seeing this makes it so much clearer. There are some that I still question, such as LeSean McCoy who I will never touch this year due to off the field issues and the total revamp of the Bills and Carlos Hyde who has a little bit too much competition for my taste.
This is of course only the most valuable Running Back in each round and does not help you to get the second or third guy. Don't you worry! If you click this link I have the complete list of Running Backs that go in rounds 1-20 with their floor, ceiling and Draft Points!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
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