Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, as I said in my previous post we are now back with two articles a week even if the schedule is a bit off. Next week we'll back to Tuesdays and Thursdays again. For today though I have the last position rankings and it is a big one. The Quarterbacks with the highest one game ceiling will be the focus in this article.
After this article the last two pre-season series starts with Position Value and Draft Analysis. In Position Value I analyze what player gives you the most value per position, so if QB1 has an ADP of 25 and QB5 has an ADP of 140 who has the greater value. In Draft Analysis I will analyze my own drafts from the standpoint of my numbers to see how I did. It also gives you an opportunity to get some takes on a big group of players.
To learn more about the one game ceiling keep reading, otherwise skip down to the rankings.
I have taken the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Marcus Mariota has a 24.4 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
I decided to split the rankings up a little bit more today to help get an easier overview of all the players. Let me know on twitter @csdfantasy if you prefer this over my classic two table rankings.
I have never been a fantasy fan of Ben Roethlisberger but he does have a high one game ceiling. At least high enough to be top ten. In the league right now the top ten is crazy competitive for Quarterbacks, we have more of them producing high numbers than ever so making this list tells you something.
Marcus Mariota finish far down on the one game floor rankings but on his good days he is on point. I don't expect him to change too much going into 2018 so for me he is somewhat of a streaming Quarterback or a perfect guy to start in DFS. For seasonal leagues there are much better options for similar value. For instance Dak Prescott.
Prescott is a better fantasy version of Marcus Mariota! He has a higher ceiling, higher floor and he is only three draft picks more expensive. To me there is no good reason to why you should take a chance on Marcus Mariota when Dak Prescott is there. Sure the receiver situation in Dallas is not ideal but Prescott just needs Zeke to get him a ton of points and the situation for the Titans is not that much better.
I have been into Kirk Cousins since I did my Minnesota Vikings Score Projection Video where I claimed that he has top five QB potential, I still believe that. His ceiling is pretty darn high, the only guys that are in front of him are the elite Quarterbacks and a young star with a small sample size. He has risen pretty high in ADP which is not ideal. Currently he is going in the 7th round which will be too high for me to pick him up most likely. I do think he has top five potential but the draft capital is a concern.
Elite, Elite and Elite place as three, four and five. There is not much to say about these three. When they have a good day they will carry your fantasy team on their back and make it look easy.
There is one concern regarding Russell Wilson however. With Doug Baldwin out I worry that we just saw the straw that broke the camel's back. You can take away the running game, have a crappy offensive line and remove one of the best red zone threats in the league but removing Baldwin too might be too much for him. This is something I worry about as I heading into 2018 traded for him, not too worried but at more than I would like to be.
So the top two guys are actually one that has only played in seven games and one that has not played since 2016. The reason for Watson's asterisk is of course his lack of sample size and Luck the lack of playing time. So to be fair Cam Newton should probably have been the number one Quarterback but I have never altered the numbers so why start now?
Andrew Luck is slowly but surely rising in ADP and I think he will be too expensive to pick up when the real draft season start after the last pre-season game. I usually don't draft until after the last pre-season game but I would have loved to pick him up late in a draft two three weeks ago.
Deshaun Watson is currently going 39th overall. Sure his one game ceiling is through the roof but people calm down. You mean to tell me that you would rather have Deshaun Watson and Pierre Garcon over Matthew Stafford and Stefon Diggs? Those two combinations are possible with where they are going right now. I mean Diggs and Stafford will be good while Garcon most likely won't be too good and Watson will most likely regress from what he did last year. If I am wrong I will be the first to admit it but for now, calm down on the Watson hype train.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD