Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I am back after a mini vacation from fantasy football. This week will again only be one article while the YouTube Channel is back on track. Next week on the other hand we'll be back with two articles a week all up to the season and beyond.
Today I am looking at Quarterback ceilings and have a bunch of surprises for you! This has been some of the most interesting numbers that I have worked on this off-season. The reason is that a lot of Quarterbacks that you would have expected to be a lot higher just have not performed in this category. Plenty of them have high floors and good seasonal fantasy scoring but for a one game ceiling when you need that crazy good game these guys just don't cut it.
To learn more about the one game ceiling keep reading, otherwise skip down to the rankings.
I have taken the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Eli Manning has a 22.4 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
I can see the twitter comments already being typed, "how can you have Eli Manning over X player". Well as I answer every time, I analyze the numbers and his have been better over the last three years than what Jared Goff has been over his first two for instance. Also when Eli is on point he can get you a ton of points while Goff mostly has shown that he can be good over a season but less so in a single game.
I hyped up Jimmy Garoppolo in my Wentz vs. Garoppolo Video and that was never tied to his one game ceiling however, seeing him this low is somewhat concerning. I know that his ADP places him at a decent spot but if you can't assume that he will be more than 0.3 points better than Case Keenum on his good days that is worrisome. Sure he will score a ton of points over the course of the season and be very stable in his scoring but we also need to win games and not just have a decent amount of points. As I said, concerning but not a deal breaker.
Philip Rivers has been another QB that I have been interested in drafting. He goes in round 11 and has a very high one game floor that you can compare to the likes of Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford. Placing 18th on the one game ceiling while also losing Hunter Henry is not good. After all these years I am afraid that he is what he is and he won't have that season where everything just clicks. Rivers is much closer to the deal breaker status than Garoppolo with the ceiling and I advise you to draft him with caution.
The only guy that I can see raising his ceiling in 2018 is Carson Wentz. His rookies numbers heavily impacts where he places on these rankings and with another year of high end production he will start to erase the numbers from his first year. Sure we need to see about his injury recovery but what is coming out of the Eagles camp right now is that you could not tell that he had been hurt. We should of course take information coming from their own sources with a pinch of salt but it is what we have to go on for now.
Matthew Stafford is creeping up my total Quarterback rankings. Placing 8th in the one game floor and 11th in one game ceiling is great for a Quarterback going 87th overall in drafts. Compare that to Carson Wentz who goes 59th overall but with worse floor and ceiling. I much rather have Stafford in the 8th round compared to Wentz in the 5th. The value disparity between Quarterbacks is not as large as it is in other positions so spending a high draft pick on one is not as solid of a draft strategy as waiting a few more rounds for a comparable option.
Matt Ryan is the forgotten man of this draft season. He is still a very good fantasy Quarterback even now when we have so many options. Sure I rate Matthew Stafford higher and I would prefer to have him but Ryan is just a few decimal points behind him but can be picked up 30 picks later. He is a great option to keep in mind when you work with late round QBs or in a situation where you want to gamble on a young guy but have a veteran option to start the season with. I did this for Dak Prescott's rookie year, I got Rivers as my main starter but when Prescott took off I made the switch. I encourage you to try something similar.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
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