Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I will be digging deep into the Tight Ends. I have some usual CSD stuff with love going Delanie Walker's way and praising Rob Gronkowski. This is the second to last position groups that gets a ceiling ranking. The Quarterbacks are last up before we get into the Value article series. That series is a new one that I hope y'all will love!
To learn more about the one game ceiling keep reading, otherwise skip down to the rankings.
I have taken the performances of all the Tight Ends from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Cameron Brate has a 11.0 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
I am writing about Tight Ends which means that I must have at least one paragraph of me talking smack about Eric Ebron. He does not even crack the top ten in one game ceiling and is behind a player that has been with far worse Quarterback in Charles Clay. How can people justify drafting him even if he will have Luck throwing him the ball? I have analyzed his numbers time and time again and he is not even an average fantasy Tight End.
I am very disappointed to see Kyle Rudolph this low in the ceiling rankings. In the Minnesota Vikings Score Projection Video this weekend I said draft him and I stand by that. I expect his ceiling to rise closer to 12.4 in 2018 with Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball. His receiving patterns fit much better with Cousins than it did with Keenum or Bradford, this will lead to him having bigger games on his best days and not as reliable on touchdowns.
O.J. Howard has peaked my interested over the last couple of days. I have analyzed his numbers more and more and his one game ceiling is so far above the rest of the guys that are close to him in floor that something is not right. The player has too much talent and too high of a one game ceiling to be stuck in one game floor hell for much longer. Even with the suspension of Jameis Winston I am OK with getting him as my Tight End. Usually I am not much of a risk taker but with all the numbers backing this up I feel comfortable in starting him in week one.
Delanie Walker has been my go to Tight End over the last two season and he will most likely be that guy in 2018 too. However, I am less confident that he can produce what he has done in the past. He has fallen in the one game floor and now he has fallen in one game ceiling too. This concerns me a lot. He has been one of the most draft-able Tight Ends with numbers far superior to his draft capital and I will miss that.
Jimmy Graham can still get one or two 12.1 point games so on his good days he can still be a top ten Tight End. However, don't expect this to happen on regular basis. He fits alright in the Packers Scheme as I have pointed out on the YouTube channel, but I am scared about his physical condition.
Tyler Eifert gets an asterisk on this list. He should not be someone that you count on but I did not want to leave him off this list since when he plays his one game ceiling is crazy high. If he can make a comeback you could try to start him in a DFS week but nothing more than that before we know he will at least give us a few games of usability.
I can't believe that more people aren't talking about Jordan Reed. I mean we have heard the talk about him for years now but he can't seem to stay healthy. Yeah yeah, that is nothing new but why the silent treatment now? Alex Smith leaned heavily on Travis Kelce and I see no reason to why he should not lean on Jordan Reed (when he plays)? You can at the moment get Reed in the ninth round which too me is a good round to get your Tight End. I prefer to stream or switch out Tight Ends based on match-up so a guy you could pair him with could be Cameron Brate or Ben Watson that you can basically get for free.
Gronk is of course still the number one Tight End and will stay that for a while longer. As my numbers are based on the last three years or as many years as the player has been in the league Gronk will continue to top this list until he retires or someone becomes the greatest Tight End of all time all of a sudden.
Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen have great one game ceilings and I will just briefly touch on them. Kelce has a new Quarterback that we have yet to see too much of. I never like a hype train and I will not get on this one either. I don't care if Mahomes lights up the league and I miss out, I prefer to get my safe Tight End and trust my other positions where I have more information. Olsen is getting older but can still play. Right now his ADP is 63 overall which is pretty high, I would not mind drafting him if he falls to me in the 70's or 80's but I much rather have Rudolph or Walker 10-15 picks later.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD