Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I am finishing out the Running Back rankings for the season. I know I am just tossing out rankings left and right now but we are moving at an incredible rate and I want to get all my numbers out to you before you start your drafts.
In these rankings you get the one game ceiling for the top Running Backs but what if you want more? In the Fantasy Snapshot series you get a full analysis of a Running Back in less than a minute. Score Projection, Floor, Ceiling, Stats, Trends, Running Patterns and Draft Grade in a Video series you don't want to miss, go check it out right here!
If you want to be able to search for a Running Back and get his ceiling or floor head to our seasonal rankings page on the website by clicking here!
To learn more about the one game ceiling keep reading, otherwise skip down to the rankings.
I have taken the performances of all the Wide Receivers from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: Leonard Fournette has a 22.6 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Once again I get to talk up Leonard Fournette in this off-season. I think that he is one of the most forgotten Running Backs this year and the only thing I can think of that is keeping him back is the hype surrounding all the other guys. This hype is very useful to someone like me that looks in depth into all the numbers. For instance Fournette has a higher ceiling than Kamara but he is much cheaper in drafts.
Devonta Freeman has also been one of my guys in 2018. I suspect that I will be drafting him in several leagues as he is very cheap but provide ton of value. He goes 20th overall right now in drafts but has more one game upside than most guys that are being drafting ahead of him.
LeSean McCoy if we only look at his numbers is a great back but in the case that more news will surface in the recent future I will remove him from this list and not draft him but as of now he is on here and that is all I will say.
I believe that Alvin Kamara's one game ceiling will stay roughly the same and especially with four games "alone". However, I do worry about him being exposed in the first four games and open to a higher risk of injury. Success in year one does not always mean success in year two and especially when circumstances change. I love to watch him run but I am not 100% sold on him in 2018.
Ezekiel Elliott tops the ceiling rankings as he did with the floor rankings. He is my highest ranked player going into 2018 and if I can get him in any draft he will be my pick no second thought to it. He has almost everything going for him this year, Dallas has improved the line even more, Tyron Smith has not had as bad of a back this off-season, La'el Collins has not changed position and Elliott himself has not been in a legal battle.
Le'Veon Bell had the second highest one game floor and has the second highest one game ceiling too. With the news coming out this week that he believes this will be his best season yet reassures me that he will not sit out anything. Sure it might take him a couple of weeks to get into game speed if he skips the entire training camp but with the numbers that he showcases I would be very pleased in having him as my second highest ranked player going into 2018.
David Johnson is coming of injuries but when he plays he has had better numbers than someone like Todd Gurley. If I had the third overall pick in a redraft league I would not spend it on David Johnson, I would instead go with Todd Gurley or Antonio Brown. Gurley over Hunt because Gurley has a higher floor with similar ceiling and larger sample size and AB due to him being my highest ranked receiver with no health concern.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD
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