Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I am really happy to have presented the Chicago Bears Score Projection Video to you this weekend. It was a team that was asked for by Lucio Perez so I would like to thank him for suggesting such an interesting team with a lot of new aspects that impacted the analysis. If you have yet to check out the Video I encourage you to do so by clicking this link -> BEARS.
Today I am looking at the top Wide Receivers for one game ceilings. These guys will win you a week almost by themselves when they have a good day! Some of them are huge surprises while some are as obvious as can be.
If you are not familiar with the one game ceiling keep reading, otherwise skip down to the first group of guys.
I have taken the performances of all the Wide Receivers from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: J.J. Nelson has a 11.6 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
Michael Thomas how you disappoint me! I have been rating you extremely high this entire off-season. Thomas' floor is the third highest in the league but he is being drafted long after the guys next to him such as DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. His ceiling is one of the reasons he is drafted after the best Receivers. If it comes down to Michael Thomas' best day vs. the other guys they will win, even if he will score more of the entire season.
I am surprised to see Tyreek Hill this far down the rankings. He was very explosive last year but apparently enough. He had three games above 20 points but most games he would be around 8 points. That production is stable and impacts his ceiling to be on the lower side, if he had had one more game above 20 his ceiling would have risen with over 1 point.
Juju-Smith-Schuster as the other second year guys gets an asterisk to his name. He showed that he can be an asset in fantasy but as his sample size is so small it is difficult to make any clear cut statements about his numbers.
Seeing T.Y. Hilton this high without having Luck for an entire year is very interesting and should be something to keep an eye on. If he can have gang buster games with limited Quarterback play he should be able to have the same amount of production or better with Andrew Luck. I expect his ceiling to stay roughly the same with Luck under center but his floor should increase with a more accurate QB. I will definitely be looking to pick him up in the third round and feel confident about it.
Doug Baldwin is known for having those crazy good performance from time to time. He should be ranked this high on a one game ceiling list but what I don't understand is the lack of respect he gets as a viable fantasy receiver. He has had the same one game floor over the last three years as Davante Adams and Larry Fitzgerald while having a higher one game ceiling. These guys have been talked about as studs while Baldwin barely is mentioned. He is currently drafted in the third round and if you get him there you should laugh all the way to the bank.
Instead, I will focus on Brandin Cooks. He goes to a high powered offense with tons of weapons that will draw attention from him, probably more than ever. I don't see his own talent being worse than before and the only thing that would worry me is the off chance that he won't see enough targets. Considering that you can get him in the fifth round right now with stats that should get him a top 12 Receiver spot at the end of the season I think you should give him another look, I sure know I will!
The usual suspect occupy the top three spots again. Even with the rise of Hopkins his numbers did not support a higher finish than fifth on the one game ceiling. The three top players are just so incredibly dominant on their good days that no one can touch them. Even A.J. Green on his best days is a tad better than Hopkins.
You could make a case for three of these players being the best fantasy Receiver going into 2018 when you take the one game floor into account. Combining the two stats Antonio Brown is the clear winner with the highest floor and ceiling but Jones falls slightly due to his floor and Hopkins rises.
Going into the 2018 season I will have them as following, AB, OBJ and Nuk. The numbers these three have in both ceiling and floor is outstanding! However, if I was going for DFS I would look more to Julio Jones and A.J. Green depending on their match-ups of course.
On Thursday I will be looking into all the top Jaguars players before starting the Running Back ceiling rankings next week!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD