Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are incing closer to draft season and I am starting to get a really good view of who I want to target and in what rounds. This will become much clearer in the upcoming weeks, who I think you should target and where.
These ceiling rankings are the second to last puzzle piece in my draft preparation and a cornerstone in building a balanced team. When you combine the floor rankings, ceiling rankings, score projections and best pick per round information you will be 100% prepared to draft the best possible team.
In case you are new to the ceiling number check out my last Wide Receiver article where I in depth explained how I arrive at the number. Otherwise, let's dig in!
To get y'all caught up you should know that Demaryius Thomas was ranked 37th with a one game ceiling of 13.0. That means that we have a small gap between him and this next group of Receivers.
Allen Hurns has been an OK fantasy player for the Jacksonville Jaguars but mainly opposite a stud Receiver. Getting more of the attention but probably more opportunity in Dallas his ceiling will probably stay roughly the same. He is very cheap right now with an ADP of 120 but with a lot of uncertainties I am not so sure you should be targeting him.
Especially since you can get Rishard Matthews 30 picks later with a higher ceiling. Sure the ceiling difference is not that big but considering the price and that Matthews also has a higher one game floor than Hurns to me this is a no brainer. I would never try to target Hurns when I know I can get a slightly better player at least fantasy wise, for that much cheaper. Setting your draft board in this way is something that will be covered more in the Best Value Per Round articles coming closer to the season.
I did not anticipate Jarvis Landry to make the top 30 in ceilings. He is a player that I heavily associate with a high floor but lack of week winning potential. Seeing that he can be surrounded by the likes of Ted Ginn and Robert Woods makes me a little bit more comfortable in taking a shot at him in 2018. I am not saying that Ted Ginn and Robert Woods are extreme stars, but they are players that you think about when you think big ups and downs.
Randall Cobb just keeps limping along. He does not make any big headlines or has even been the second best Receiver on the Packers for a while but he can still get you some points and with Jordy Nelson out the picture I think people will overpay slightly for him. His ADP is currently 100 which to me is way too high for him.
Michael Crabtree has a new team, Emmanuel Sanders has a new Quarterback and Dez Bryant has no team at all. These players are have an impact on the fantasy season when they play, not only if they score but maybe more so when they not score. We have our Dez lovers and Sanders people in PPR and the people who believed Crabtree was the guy to get last year (my bad). When they have the right circumstances they can be great and have the ability to score a ton of points on any given week, it is just that, that week is showing up less and less for every year. Be aware of all three!
Alshon Jeffery did not get enough attention when he moved to the Eagles. I have always like Jeffery and thought that he was an underrated fantasy player. Right now his ADP puts him in the 50's and I am totally OK with getting my second Receiver there that has the potential to end up in the top 20 Wide Receivers at the end of the year. With the 14.7 in ceiling and 3.9 in floor he will easily rank in my top 12 Wide Receivers when I set my board, if not top 10!
As with Dez, Crabtree and Sanders there is a huge questions regarding Martavis Bryant. This questions regarding his suspension is so up in the air that I will just say, when he plays he has the numbers to back up a being drafted highly.
Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen both go hand in hand in ceilings and with a new Quarterback it will be interesting to see if this can continue. Having the exact same one game ceiling indicates that both have the ability to lead the way for you fantasy team on any given week but also that it is likely that it will be difficult picking who it will be week to week.
Both Diggs and Thielen have pretty low one game floors, 1.4 and 1.8. With the high ceilings and low floors the chances are that one guy finds his groove one game, dominates and disappears in the next. That is perfect for Daily fantasy but not ideal in seasonal play. I advice you to be cautions in buying into the Vikings offense hype train that is pulling out the station, it will drop a lot of carts on the way so if you get on, make sure you are in the right one when the track gets crazy.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD