Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today we have the first ceiling rankings of the year and as we did with floors we will start with Wide Receivers. However, as a Swedish person I would like to point out that Sweden beat Switzerland (yes, two different countries) in soccer today and went through to the quarter finals. This is huge over here and I just wanted to share my excitement with y'all!
This post is focused on the Wide Receivers that will give you the highest upside on any given week. This will rank the players based on what we can expect from them on their best day.
I have taken the performances of all the Wide Receivers from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% probability of being outscored each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land above this number and this is why I call this the "one game ceiling" or just "ceiling". Example: J.J. Nelson has a 11.6 one game ceiling, that means that there is only a 16% chance that he will score more than that on any given game. Let's dig in!
These ceilings are really not that high but what is interesting with these players is when you get down to drafting your bench players and players that you would like to take a shot at. I love getting high ceiling players later in drafts. The reasoning behind that is, if a player has the skill set to score that many points one time he might be able to reach that height again and perhaps stay there with some luck.
That reasoning works best if you are OK with the fact that most of these guys might only have the skills to be great one game and be trash in other games. The ceiling just lets you know where the 16% probability base line goes. However, the players in this first group all have shown great ability with lack of consistency and are worth taking a shot at late in any draft.
Cameron Meredith is a perfect example of a guy with a good ceiling but we don't truly know what he is. He ranked 75th on my floor rankings which lets you know that he is not a reliable scorer but he has those games where he goes for about 12 points which is pretty good. With the change of team/QB he might be able to raise the floor somewhat and combining that with a top 50 ceiling will be something to keep in mind.
Josh Gordon is the other strong Receiver in this group. He ranked 33rd on the floor rankings which is pretty darn good considering the circumstances. With a combination of 48 here today with 10th in floor he is a guy I am much more willing to draft than Meredith. Of course I will have to pay a lot more for Gordon than Meredith but if we just go by the numbers you are getting a far superior fantasy player which should demand a higher ADP. Furthermore, Gordon's ADP is actually not that high considering what you will get.
I honestly thought that Will Fuller would rank a little higher than 42nd in the ceiling rankings but that was my bias being checked. He was a guy that I had as a sneaky pick last year that paid off really well for a few weeks. I love when the numbers check me so that I can be more informed than I was before!
The two Benjamin's are crazy to have next to each other. I mean Kelvin Benjamin is someone that has been talked about to death while Travis Benjamin sneaks along and gets his massive games here and there. The story is low key the same as with Meredith and Gordon, they have similar ceilings but Kelvin has a much higher floor. I would however consider drafting Travis just cause of the QB situation for the Chargers compared to, well, the Bills whole team.
Demaryius Thomas tops today's rankings and I believe that he can even get a little bit higher with a new Quarterback. However, he is one year older and we have not seen him be dominant in quite some time now. Top 40 is a good spot for him on the ceiling while maybe having the ability to be as high as 30th.
Not sure if Robby Anderson will play in 2018 or what is going on with him but I will keep him on this list due to him actually have a pretty good one game ceiling.
Cooper Kupp is rising in my book every time I look at numbers for Wide Receivers. He does lack in the sample size department but with a numbers that place him 17th in floors and 39th in ceilings I am willing to somewhat overlook that. He is roughly in the same situation as last year with a stud Running Back taking the spotlight and two Receiver colleagues that has too be watched by opposing defenses. I love seeing almost the same situation as last year with numbers that are great and ADP in the late 8th.
Josh Gordon and Cooper Kupp are my must drafts today and I think you should consider drafting them too!
Tomorrow there will be a new Fantasy Snapshot Video and it will feature Alvin Kamara and on Thursday these rankings will continue with even more Wide Receivers!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD