Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, Quarterbacks are back again today. I got too excited analyzing their numbers on Tuesday so I had to get back to it as fast as I could. This article has it all, a King in the north, the golden boy, the story book contender who has won a few battles but yet shown enough and the outsider from the west ready to conquer the world.
If you are familiar with the floor rankings system you can jump down to the first table and I only got more thing to say, let's dig in!
One Game Floor: I have taken the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% risk of not being reached each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land under this number and this is why I call this the "one game floor" or just "floor".
All these Quarterbacks are players that I will be drafting in 2018. The reason I know this is because their ADP compared to where I have them in my rankings does not add up. According to these rankings they should be considered starting QBs in ten team leagues but only two of them are drafted in the top 10.
Rivers, Stafford and Ryan are right now outside the top 10 QBs in ADP but have great floor numbers. Sure there is a small gap between Newton and Stafford so it makes sense that Newton and Brees are drafted at five and seven but it still does not explain why Cousins, Roethlisberger, and Goff goes ahead of them.
I have never liked Rivers as a player if I'm being honest or as a fantasy option, always felt that he was unreliable but his numbers have improved over the last two years putting him in the top 10 in floors. Combine that with the fire power in the Chargers Wide Receiver group and a top tier Running Back there should be a lot of points to collect for him. He is currently being drafted in the 15th round and that is where I will pick him up and smile all the way to my fantasy playoffs.
I love Cam Newton as a fantasy Quarterback, he gets you games where he is amazing but he also has that big floor. The two things keeping me from drafting him, his ADP and his lack of weapons. Olsen is getting older and Newton is more and more carrying that whole attack by himself. That is dangerous even if it is good sense you get a ton of points but it also leaves him vulnerable, physically.
The King in the north reigns supreme when it comes to one game floor. There is no one that I would trust more to get me a stupid amount of points even when he has a bad day. Aaron Rodgers is too good to be anything than number one on this list and anyone that says differently should reevaluate and look at the numbers, he is hands down the best guy to have even when he has a bad game.
Let's talk about Deshaun Watson and Jimmy Garoppolo. Both of them get an asterisk on this list due to the fact that they have yet to play a full season for their teams. Watson got injured but had the numbers to warrant a place on this list while Garoppolo came in late but showcased a ton! I think you should be more excited to draft Watson due to the talent around him while I believe that Garropolo is still a really good option. However, I would not draft Watson due to the fact that he right now is going in the fourth round and I would never spend a fourth round pick on a QB, and especially not one that has yet to play a full season.
Brady is Brady, I believe that he has one more year in him and if that is the case he is the second/third most stable and reliable fantasy Quarterback. I like Russell Wilson a lot and he can get you a ton of points but look at the difference in floors between him and Brady. On their respective bad days, Brady scores two more points than Wilson. Those two points over a couple of bad games over a season can be the difference in winning one or two games and getting you into the playoffs.
By tomorrow we will hopefully have all of CSD Fantasy's charts on the website. If you are looking for interesting stats on a player from 2017 we will have that for you soon!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD