Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today I will get into Quarterbacks for the first time in 2018! There will be more content than ever on all CSD Fantasy platforms leading into the start of the NFL season so be sure to stay up to date on the website, YouTube, Twitter and Instagram.
No time for introductions in this article though, I just wanna write about the QBs so if you are familiar with the Floor stat jump down to the rankings.
One Game Floor: I have taken the performances of all the Quarterbacks from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% risk of not being reached each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land under this number and this is why I call this the "one game floor" or just "floor". Let's dig in!
How I hate seeing my guy Dak Prescott this low! Seeing him next to mister average himself, Andy Dalton hurts my Cowboy eyes but the numbers don't lie. Prescott has not been a stable fantasy Quarterback, at least not without Ezekiel Elliott running the ball. One week he will score a bunch of fantasy points and follow that performance with a total dud. That is not what I am looking for in my fantasy Quarterback. I want stability and lean on my other skill position to score higher, but that is just me.
That Ben Roethlisberger is this low on a rankings of the one game floor is nothing that surprises me. He has his big games at home when the team is just firing on all cylinders then the Steelers goes on the road and he can't complete a pass. He is a great Quarterback but not what I am looking for in a season long fantasy league. Big Ben is a great QB to have if you are streaming QBs and with a 11th round pick I am sure some people will feel good about drafting him.
A guy that you can pair him with in the 14th 15th round is Marcus Mariota. He has more weapons than ever this year but not numbers to support him as a starting fantasy Quarterback. As a team where you stream Quarterbacks from the Waiver Wire or where you have two as you go back and forth with these two can be a great duo. You can play Big Ben until November for instance when you switch to Mariota (39% of all Mariota TDs come in November, for more on Mariota, click here)
Bradford gets a place on this list due to him actually playing pretty well when he actually plays. To me there is no problem starting Bradford when he can be started, it is just that he more likely than not will not be playing a significant number of games and should never be relied on, but y'all knew that.
This group of Quarterbacks are guys I would love to have in a 14 team league but in a 10 team league not so much but for Carson Wentz. They are very stable guys but they don't really have those last couple of fantasy points on their bad days to rival the best of the best. Wentz would be the exception but his floor is impacted by him only playing two seasons with one of them being his rookie year.
I am not sure that I would touch Blake Bortles with a 10 foot pole, mainly cause I am not sure he could hit a 10 foot pole if he stood on it. His floor might warrant a top 15 spot but he won't get you much more than that on his good days. As you will see from the ceiling rankings, he will get you some points but that is it.
Tyrod Taylor has earned his spot on this list, never playing with a great offense and never getting the credit he deserved from his team. As a fantasy Quarterback I think he can be serviceable and very stream-able even with the Browns who should have a better offense than the Bills in 2018 in my opinion.
With Kirk Cousins being in a much better offense than he has ever been his numbers should theoretically rise a bit from his 10.5. However, after a few years we know what a player is so even if the team around him is better his numbers probably won't rise in a significant way to all of a sudden make him a super stable fantasy QB. I can see him going up to 11 points on his bad days and that his good days still are pretty darn good!
Alex Smith is moving to a new offense as well and I will let you know right now that he won't repeat what he did last year. As I said above, we know what players are after a while, even when they have an outlier season they regress back to the mean. A 10.1 one game floor and a top 15 on this list is exactly where Alex Smith should be. He will get you some fantasy points even on his worst day but he won't be a fantasy MVP again.
Tomorrow a new Fantasy Snapshot Video is released again, this time I am taking a look at Leonard Fournette. You don't wanna miss that I can promise you that, I love the player in 2018 and so should you!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD