Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, the Market Share series is back again with a slight change. Since I have already done a full analysis of the Houston Texans, (that you can find here) and the Video that is being released this weekend will focus on the Tennessee Titans today's article will only have two teams in it.
As we get closer to the season I will move over to a 100% focus on the rankings before the Best Pick Per Round, Best Value and Draft Analysis series start. This means that the website will be jam packed with rankings for you while you can find the Head-2-Heads, Score Projections and Fantasy Snapshots on YouTube as always! Let's dig in!
The Colts have a pretty big rush pool for a team that is associated with the pass. This will of course change when Andrew Luck is back under center. I don't expect them to be a run first team whatsoever, especially when the opposing teams usually give up a ton of passing attempts.
The teams they are facing in 2018 are pretty strong defenses that forces you to pass the ball. They are a combination of teams that give up the 9th fewest amount of rush attempts to their opponents so owners of Colts Running Backs beware.
Let's say that Andrew Luck actually isn't coming back as we think in 2018. I still love T.Y. Hilton due to his huge share of the targets. Getting almost 130 projected targets is huge, even with Brissett as the Quarterback. I feel very comfortable having him as a second Wide Receiver on a team in any situation but I will not overpay to get him, he's not somebody I am dying to draft but somebody I feel good about.
The rest of the receivers are non-factors in fantasy. Getting around 10% of the targets will never be enough for you to have any sort of meaningful season long impact. They might have a game or two where they can help your team or help you in DFS, but that is it.
I have earlier discussed my eagerness to draft Marlon Mack solely on the basis of him lacking competition and his current ADP. If the Colts give Mack around as many carries as they usually do to their number one back he will easily have over 240 carries. That should be enough for him to have value. If you can pick up a 240 carry Running Back in the 7th round, wouldn't you?
The Tight End situation is interesting. What I have read is that Ebron will be the number one guy. I have never liked Ebron and his numbers don't support a top 10 Tight End. Now he has to share with Doyle and I am not so sure that the share of targets will be what it has been in Indianapolis before. I can't see Ebron getting 95 targets while Doyle only getting 30. Expect this to change and be very careful with both of them.
The Jaguars face opponents that are very similar in giving up run plays as the Colts. However, the Jaguars rely on the run so much more than the Colts that their total rush pool is the 4th biggest in the entire league!
Their pass pool is actually larger than the Colts too. This is due to their offense staying on field much more than the Colts over the last two years. Their players will have many more opportunities to be fantasy relevant thanks to this.
The opportunities are however so spread out that it will be very difficult to predict what Jaguar that will have a great game and who will be useless on any given week. These are questions for DFS while for seasonal leagues the players lose a ton of value. When you have to predict based on form, weekly opponent and trends, drafting the best option becomes more difficult.
However, I would not mind taking a flyer on any of these Receivers. Their ADP is extremely low, Lee is the highest with 144 overall, this means that you can get them as a bench player, wait and see, then if the Jaguars change the depth chart you can make your decision. There is value to be found here for the Wide Receiver 1 and 2 it is just difficult to know who that will be.
The Jaguars lean heavily on the run and especially on Fournette. This does not mean that Yeldon don't have any value. As I stated earlier, the Jaguars have a huge rush pool so even their second Running Back will have plenty of carries.
Fournette is a player that I very excited to draft. He is somewhat forgotten with Elliott not being suspended, DJ being back from injury, Gurley, Kamara and Hunt crushing 2017, the Barkley hype and Bell being Bell. This is something that I love to see, people getting on board with narratives and forget that Fournette had a higher one game floor than both Kamara and Hunt for instance, meaning that he was a safer pick entering almost every game last year. Get him while you can, because if he can achieve the same floor and play 16 games he will be unbelievably valuable to your fantasy team for what you paid.
On Sunday or Saturday the Titans Score Projection Videos will be released. I know it is one week overdue but I hope y'all are fine with that and enjoyed the Jerick McKinnon Fantasy Snapshot instead!
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD