Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, with the recent feedback regarding the Score Projection Videos on YouTube (you can find them here) I decided to make a Score Projection written piece here on the website. I am very excited that so many of you watched and commented on the Videos that I wanted to create even more in the same manner.
So today I have a written Team Score Projection article featuring the Houston Texans. I will cover the main things that I cover in the Videos, mainly, Market Share, the Quarterback's passing trends, the Running Back's rushing trends, Top Wide Receiver's receiving trends, touchdown rates and of course a seasonal score projection for the top fantasy players on the team. Let's dig in!
The Texans passing pool is almost dead center in the league and with Deshaun Watson being under center I expect the rushing pool to increase over the next few years. Speaking of the rushing pool, it is huge! The Texans own rushing combined with what their opponents next year usually gives up they land the fifth biggest rush pool in the entire NFL.
DeAndre Hopkins is getting so many targets in this offense that I don't know what to do with myself. Is there a legit reason why not to draft him as the number two Receiver in 2018? And I say number two because I have Antonio Brown higher after putting them Head-2-Head earlier this year.
Will Fuller sees a decent amount of targets as their second Receiver and I expect him not to light up the league as crazy as he did last year but still end up as a decent fantasy Receiver.
Lamar Miller is a sneaky Running Back for me this year. I think people are again sleeping on him and with Foreman still rehabbing he will be their main guy at least for at the start. I would not say that I am super high on him but if he can keep his job he will be a decent fantasy player just for the workload.
Watson is like most Quarterbacks staying away from the deep middle while really hammering on short side with throws. The short left sees 31% of all his throws which is something to keep mind, he is vulnerable if you can take that away from him.
However, if you do take it away he has been more successful both in terms of completion percentage and with yards per completion when throwing to the right side of the field. So if you take away where the play calling/he prefers to throw he will actually be more of a threat to your team.
His touchdown rate last year is unsustainable but after adjusting it to reflect what I believe is a more representative value I expect his rate to be 6.5%. This is still a remarkable touchdown rate but it is not only due to his play from last year but also impacted by the opponents that he will be facing in 2018 that give up a lot of touchdowns to opposing Quarterbacks by tradition.
I Project him to Score: 18.9 points from Rushing, 154 from Passing, 128 from TDs and 272.9 in Total
His catch rate is actually nothing to write home about. He is above the 60% in the shorter zones which is my bottom bar for a top Receiver, anything below that and the warning bells go off. His deeper zones are decent but again nothing spectacular.
Nuk's yards per catch is where he makes his living. Hopkins does not catch the ball every time but when he does is big. In the shorter zones his yards per catch average is over 10 which is great, especially with the amount of targets he'll see there with Watson. His deeper zones are fantastic too of course with the middle of being the bright star, however, the lack of targets there makes the zone less important. The deep right will be a deadly combo with Watson in 2018.
I Project him to Score: 118 points from Receiving, 54 from TDs and 172 in Total.
Lamar Miller's rushing tendencies are pretty interesting. He averages almost 4 yards per carry running the ball in any direction. His most productive rushing lane is when he bounces it to the outside on the right side. However, this is also where he runs the least. This is why he has trouble racking up yards as a fantasy back. Other more high profiled Running Backs tend to have one or two lanes where they really shine. You don't even have to look at high profile guys, even players like Austin Ekeler and Rod Smith have these tendencies. This is what makes Lamar Miller so interesting to me. He defies the convention of of being great in certain situations and worse in others by being just average everywhere.
The thing that takes some of the interest away though is that he runs 31% of his carries to either side of the center and that is actually his least productive lane. 3.7 yard per carry up the middle is 0.6 yards below the league average of number 1-2 Running Backs. When you take the 31% of runs into account, those 0.6 yards become a huge amount of yards. In my projection he will only gain 267.3 yards from all those rushes. If he had league average numbers there that would have been 310.6, that is a 43 yard difference.
I Project him to Score: 17.5 points from Receiving, 94.3 from Rushing 42 from TDs and 153.8 in Total.
The table above shows the teams projections with the position they would have finished in 2017 if they had these numbers.
From this table it is clear that there are at least three if not four players that you should be eyeing in your draft. I rate Deshaun Watson highly even with his injury, I won't pay what you will have to pay to get him but I will be pouncing with the first sign of a slide.
DeAndre Hopkins is really segmenting his status as my second highest rated Receiver behind Antonio Brown and ahead of OBJ and Michael Thomas. His share of the targets in Houston combined with the Quarterback and his own skills and we got something special for fantasy.
Lamar Miller is currently going in the fifth round and that is why I will be drafting him. McKinnon who has a similar projection (check out the 49ers Score Projection here) is going in the third round so for me there is a ton of value with drafting Miller even with the threat of Foreman.
This weekend there will be a new Head-2-Head Video featuring Stefon Diggs and Allen Robinson so be sure to check that out and if you have not already watched it, spend a minute to check out the Ezekiel Elliott Snapshot, a minute filled with stats, useful information and projections.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD