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Today I will be digging into the Tight Ends that will give you the safest floor on any given week. As I have been getting a lot of questions on how I arrive at this number lately I thought I would give a bit more in-depth explanation.
I have taken the performances of all the Tight Ends from the last three years, or as many games as the player have been in the league in the case that he has not played for three years. With this we get an average amount of fantasy points that the player has scored and a standard deviation.
The standard deviation is used to describe how much variation a sample size has. It tells you how far away outcomes are from the average (mean).
By combining these two numbers, (standard deviation and average) we arrive at a number that has a 16% risk of not being reached each week, that is, the player's scoring variation is not very likely to land under this number and this is why I call this the "one game floor" or just "floor". Let's dig in!
Kyle Rudolph is just outside that top ten spot that is so important for a position such as Tight End. You don't start that many and tons of leagues are only ten teams so why would you draft him? Well, he now gets a Quarterback that has been very successful throwing the football to his Tight End in the past and the guys in front of him tend to break, he's also way ahead of the 12th guy on this list.
The 12th guy is however Ben Watson who just joined the New Orleans Saints, a team with a great Quarterback that has seen limited success throwing the football to his Tight End since Jimmy Graham left. The Saints are stacked on offense but I still expect Watson to land somewhere around 10-13 when all is said and done in 2018. Having the 12th highest floor with Flacco and the Ravens offense means that he has some ability.
If Andrew Luck is the Quarterback in Indianapolis I could see myself drafting Eric Ebron, if not I would not touch him with a ten foot pole. Jack Doyle saw some success with Jacoby Brissett but Ebron could not even be a great Tight End with Matthew Stafford. Ebron is one of those tease players, you think they are going to be good and they burn you. Same can be said about Eifert, he is so good when he plays, with an emphasis on when.
I really thought Greg Olsen would be higher than nine on this list. I felt that he was a more reliable guy to get me those points every week but I was wrong. Looking more into his scoring it has been somewhat streaky, but these numbers are also impacted by the string of games that landed him less than 2 fantasy points last year so keep that in mind. I will still not be spending a high draft pick on any Tight End with a floor this low.
As I have said every time I analyze Tight Ends, who would have thought that I would have Rob Gronkowski as the number one guy? Well, this year it might be a different answer, I have heard some people say Kelce, but to be Gronk is still number one and by a pretty big margin.
Delanie Walker is sneaking into second place and for a third year in a row I love him. His one game floor his amazing and the draft capital you have to spend to get him is almost an insult to him. He is currently the 8th Tight End drafted and 72nd overall. Please let me get Walker in the 7th round and have the Tight End that will never lose me a week.
Jordan Reed is another guy that I love, if he just can stay healthy... Alex Smith has leaned heavily on his Tight End in Kansas City and it will again be his best weapon in D.C. If the two of them can get a connection going and stay on the field they will rack up fantasy points and the best part, Reed's ADP is falling right now.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD