Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, due to some time constraints this week this will be a much shorter article than the last couple of ones I have written. I am right in the middle of a monthly reconciliation at my day job while also moving, however I still got my numbers for y'all just that the analysis will be much shorter.
If you are familiar with how I calculate Market Share you can skip down to the Raiders. First, to arrive at Rush and Pass Pools I have analyzed the trends from the team’s last two years and put that in relation two all of their opponent’s trends from the last two years. This gives us an idea of how many pass and rush attempts a team will have in 2018. Second, to arrive at the share for each position I analyze the team's trends from the last 3 years. How they have targeted their different roles with more emphasis on the most recent year with the 3rd year getting the least amount of consideration. With these numbers I arrive at a projection for share of the targets and carries that can be used on relation with the Rush and Pass Pools to get a projected amount of targets and carries. Let's dig in!
The Raiders does not have an interesting passing pool at all. They are in the middle of the pack, nothing that will get you to say, "I must have all their Receivers" or "I am not touching anyone catching passes there". However, their rushing pool is not the biggest and is actually one of the smallest in the league.
You would think that with Derek Carr throwing the ball (I enjoy him as a real football QB) and Cooper, Nelson and Bryant catching them I should be excited. Well no, there is just too few targets going to the top guys for me to get excited.
If the targets were less spread out among the players, including fourth string Wide Receivers, third string Running Backs and the next Tight End I would be much happier.
I don't trust Lynch to be the RB1 the entire season and I don't trust Martin to be a RB1 when he gets the chance. Either way the number one guy will not see enough Carries due to the small rush pool and the second guy will see to few to be viable.
All in all, not too excited about the Raiders.
Well, if the Raiders was in the middle of the pack in passing the Broncos are the middle. They are dead center in the entire league. For the rush pool though they have a decent chunk with the 9th largest one in the NFL.
Thomas burned me hard last year but I am not giving up. He will see a huge chunk of the Broncos entire target share and I am willing to bet on him again, especially with Case Keenum under center compared to Siemian or Lynch.
I am OK with the amount of targets projected for Sanders and I am again willing to take a chance on a Broncos Receiver. I mean due to the share of the the entire pass pool Sanders is projected to see almost as many targets as the WR1 in Oakland.
Not too hype on the Running Back situation in Denver. Sure Booker has a decent share of the carries but not enough to get me excited considering his previous play too.
The Chiefs are in the bottom of the league both when it comes to passing and rushing. I expect them to change a lot compared to last year of course, but with the addition of Watkins to the already big play ability of Hill they might just score on deep throws and be on attack less than other teams.
This is the disappointing story of the Chiefs over the last couple of years. The only guy that gets a good amount of targets is Travis Kelce. I am not saying this is a bad thing, especially for Kelce owners but for the people wanting to draft a Chiefs Receiver. There has just not been enough targets to have a more than one Receiver be viable and that is mostly due to Hill averaging over 40 yards per catch on passes over 15 yards. I mean if he did not take it to the house 102 targets would not be too great.
Hunt is expensive in drafts but he has the most amount of projected carries so far in the AFC West (spoilers, Melvin Gordon will have more). I like Hunt but with a new QB and the price you gotta pay for him right now I much rather wait a few picks and get me 30 more carries with Gordon.
The Chargers have a below league average rush pool with as you see below a massive share of those carries goes to Gordon. Their pass pool is above league average but not a top 10 one. The whole division is lacking in extremes when it comes to pools.
Gordon has a massive share of the rush pool with 63% and tops the division easily in projected carries. Not only that but expect him to see a bunch of targets in 2018 too. His floor number is still not the greatest if you saw that he did not make the top 10 floors, however, his rookie year heavily impacts that stat so keep that in mind.
Allen has the second most projected targets in the division behind Thomas and I do not mind drafting him at all. I compared Allen to Davante Adams recently in a Video where I analyze him further, I encourage you to check it out!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD